THE global population is expected to reach 8 billion next Tuesday (15th). According to the most recent United Nations (UN) projections, less than 500,000 people are missing for the planet to reach the mark. According to the UN, the world population should reach 8.5 billion in 2030 and the 9.7 billion in 2050 🇧🇷
The World Population Prospects 2022 report points out that India is expected to surpass China as the most populous country in the world in 2023. The population is estimated to peak at around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and remain at this level until 2100.
“This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our humanity and admire the advances in health that have increased longevity and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.
“At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet. It is also a time to reflect that we are still falling short of our commitments to one another,” he added.
What do population indicators say?
The global population is growing at the slowest pace since 1950, showing a 1% drop in 2020. The report also states that fertility has dropped sharply in recent decades for many countries.
Currently, two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or region where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, roughly the level required for long-term zero growth for a population with low mortality.
The populations of 61 countries are estimated to decline by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, due to low fertility levels and, in some cases, high emigration rates.
The survey points out that more than half of the projected increase in global population by 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines and United Republic of Tanzania. Sub-Saharan African countries are estimated to contribute more than half of the predicted increase by 2050.
“The relationship between population growth and sustainable development is complex and multidimensional,” said the UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, Liu Zhenmin, in a statement.
“Rapid population growth makes it more difficult to eradicate poverty, fight hunger and malnutrition, and increase the coverage of health and education systems. On the other hand, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility levels and slowing global population growth.”
Population distribution by age groups
The report indicates that in most sub-Saharan African countries, as well as parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, the share of the working-age population aged between 25 and 64 is increasing due to recent fertility declines. The shift in age distribution offers an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita, known as the “demographic dividend”.
The UN points out that countries can increase the potential benefits of a favorable age distribution if they invest in the further development of their human capital. For this, it is necessary to ensure access to quality health care and education for all ages and promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work.
The share of the global population aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050. The number of people aged 65 and over worldwide is expected to more than double the number of children under 5, and about the same as the number of children under 12.
The UN advises that countries with older populations should adapt their public programs to the growing number of older people, implementing universal health care and long-term care systems, as well as improving the sustainability of social security and retirement programs.
Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an improvement of nearly 9 years since 1990. Further reductions in mortality are estimated to result in an average global longevity of around 77.2 years in 2050. Still on By 2021, life expectancy for the least developed countries was 7 years behind the global average.
Impacts of the pandemic
The Covid-19 pandemic has affected all three components of population change. Global life expectancy at birth has dropped to 71.0 years in 2021. In some countries, successive waves of the disease may have produced short-term reductions in the number of pregnancies and births, while for many countries there is little evidence of an impact on levels or fertility trends, according to the UN.
In addition, the pandemic has restricted all forms of human mobility, including international migration.
“More government actions aimed at reducing fertility would have little impact on the pace of population growth between now and mid-century because of the young age structure of today’s global population. However, the cumulative effect of lower fertility, if sustained over several decades, could be a more substantial slowdown in global population growth in the second half of the century,” said the director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs. , John Wilmoth.
(With information from the United Nations)
Source: CNN Brasil
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