The planet Earth will reach this Tuesday (15) the mark of 8 billion inhabitants, according to estimates by the United Nations (UN). The world reaches a level with a tendency to decrease the pace of growth and expansion of elderly populations in different nations.
According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2022 report, life expectancy in the world reached 72.8 years in 2019, which represents an increase of almost nine years since 1990. Although it has fallen to 71.0 years in 2021, as a reflection of the pandemic, the projection is that the average global longevity will reach 77.2 years in 2050.
By mid-century, the United Nations estimates that the number of people over the age of 65 will more than double the number of children under age 5.
“Today, we have 1.1 billion seniors aged 60 or over in the world. By 2100 we will reach 3.1 billion. The elderly population will triple”, clarifies the doctor in demography and retired researcher from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) José Eustáquio.
One of the factors that has contributed to the inversion of the age pyramid –with a shrinking young population and an expanding number of elderly people– is the reduction in the fertility rate in several countries.
According to information from the United Nations, in 2021, the average fertility of the world’s population was 2.3 births per woman over a lifetime. In 1950, the number was 5. By 2050, the expectation is that the global average will be reduced to 2.1 births per woman.
UN data also show that life expectancy at birth in 2019 was higher for women than for men: 73.8 and 68.4, respectively. The female advantage in surviving is observed on all continents.
As for population growth, the demographer explains that, although the world population continues to grow, the pace is decreasing.
“It will reach zero growth in 2086 and, from 2087, the world population starts to fall. Of course, there are countries where the population is already decreasing and there are countries where the population is growing a lot, like Nigeria, for example, which is expected to pass the United States and become the third largest population in the world.”
According to UN estimates, there is a 95% probability that, by 2100, the global population will be between 8.9 billion and 12.4 billion.
José Eustáquio explains that there are divergent lines of interpretation about what it means to reach 8 billion inhabitants. While some see the scenario with optimism, others consider a possible collapse.
For the demographer, “the environment is not supporting this carrying capacity” and we are in a situation where “the size of the population and the size of the economy are unsustainable”. Eustáquio, however, points out that he sees the trend of population decline with optimism, because that way “you can take care of people’s quality of life”.
inequalities
Data from the UN report also show social inequality in different countries. With regard to population growth, for example, the projection indicates that more than half of the increase predicted worldwide by 2050 should occur in eight countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines and the United Republic from Tanzania.
In all eight countries, the Human Development Index (HDI) is less than 0.8 (0.571, 0.731, 0.498, 0.633, 0.535, 0.544, 0.699 and 0.549, respectively), according to a UN report released in September.
According to the United Nations, indexes between 0.550 and 0.699 are considered medium, while between 0.700 and 0.799 are considered high. Above 0.8, the HDI is considered very high. To arrive at the index, health, education and standard of living criteria are considered.
“Every country that put an end to poverty and hunger also went through the demographic transition, which is a reduction in mortality and fertility rates”, highlights Eustáquio.
The expert points out, however, that the reduction in fertility should happen naturally, respecting reproductive rights.
“Reducing fertility is a general tendency of the modernization and development process, but this has to happen within a democratic field”, he explains.
Impacts of the pandemic
The Covid-19 pandemic has affected, in addition to life expectancy, fertility and human mobility in different countries.
In some places, successive waves of the disease may have produced short-term reductions in the number of pregnancies and births. In other nations there is little evidence of the impact on fertility levels or trends, according to the UN.
Furthermore, the pandemic has restricted all forms of human mobility, including international migration.
The organization claims, however, that it is still premature to determine the magnitude of the impact of the health crisis, since the data are limited.
*With information from Lucas Rocha, from CNN, in São Paulo
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
