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WTI Crude Oil Rallyes, Tests 200-DMA Amid Supply Cut Speculation

  • The weakness of the US dollar supported the recovery in WTI and rumors that OPEC+ could consider further supply cuts at its next meeting on November 26.
  • Russia’s recent lifting of its gasoline export ban could limit the rise in WTI prices.
  • Baker Hughes’ latest US rig count indicates a possible increase in oil supply, which could put downward pressure on oil prices.

US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rallied more than 2% on Monday and is testing the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $78.13 in the North American mid-session. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $78.32, after hitting a daily low of $75.49.

Oil prices bolstered by dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions

The price of oil remains supported by the weakness of the US Dollar (USD), along with sources claiming that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are considering additional supply cuts when the cartel meets on the 26th. of November.

Traders are keeping a close eye on the Russian crude oil trade after Washington imposed sanctions on ships shipping Russian crude to India, above the price cap imposed by Washington and the G7 group.

On Friday, Moscow lifted a ban on gasoline exports, which could cap WTI prices. The latest Baker Hughes rig count in the US suggested that oil prices could decline as a higher number of rigs indicates increased supply.

Meanwhile, US refineries are on track to boost production by 559,000 barrels per day (bpd) this week as they emerge from planned fall maintenance, leaving just 264,000 bpd of capacity offline.

Aside from this, geopolitical risks could boost oil prices, although the Middle East conflict between Israel and Hamas remains contained within the Gaza Strip.

WTI technical levels


Latest price today 78.34
Today Daily variation 2.38
Today’s daily variation 3.13
Today’s daily opening 75.96
daily SMA20 79.92
daily SMA50 84.51
SMA100 daily 81.96
SMA200 daily 77.98
Previous daily high 76.18
Previous daily low 72.92
Previous weekly high 79.66
Previous weekly low 72.39
Previous Monthly High 90.88
Previous monthly low 80.52
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 74.93
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 74.17
Daily Pivot Point S1 73.86
Daily Pivot Point S2 71.76
Daily Pivot Point S3 70.6
Daily Pivot Point R1 77.12
Daily Pivot Point R2 78.27
Daily Pivot Point R3 80.37

Source: Fx Street

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