- WTI fell back below $110 in recent trading on rumors that a US-Iran nuclear deal is imminent.
- But analysts are skeptical that the removal of Iranian sanctions will be enough to offset supply disruptions from Russia.
Over the course of the last less than an hour, crude oil markets have been incredibly choppy, seeing intense but short-lived selling pressure on rumors that the US and Iran could be on the brink of a deal. nuclear deal. WTI futures from the previous month, trading around $112.00 at 13:30 GMT, fell to as low as $106.00 in a matter of minutes as an energy journalist tweeted that a nuclear deal with Iran would be signed within the next 72 hours. Although prices have since recovered somewhat from these intraday lows, the price action remains choppy and capped at $110.
News of a potentially imminent deal between the US and other Western powers and Iran on a return to the 2015 deal raises the possibility that the US could rapidly increase sanctions on Iranian exports. Commodity analysts say this could free up as much as 1.3 million barrels a day in exports. This would be a much-needed injection of supply at a time when crude oil prices have been melting higher in anticipation that harsh Western financial sanctions on Russia will severely disrupt crude oil exports of 3-4 million barrels per country day.
In fact, the Russian supply disruption has already become a reality this week, as major international buyers have pushed back against Russian crude laws amid sanctions concerns and global investment banks are extracting financing for the energy sector. From Russia. This helped WTI rise an additional $25 for the week. While the latest news on Iran has added to the volatile mix of factors/issues being handled by crude oil traders, analysts are warning that a deal may not be enough to ease the rally in crude oil.
“While some remain paralyzed that a deal with Iran will provide much-needed relief, we again caution that the deal is not yet done and the sums involved would be too small to offset a major Russian disruption,” analysts say. RBC. They also point out that OPEC+ this week, in deciding not to deviate from its current policy of increasing oil production quotas by 400,000 barrels per day each month, “essentially focused on sending any output signal to calm the runaway oil market.” . That suggests the bullish outlook for oil remains intact.
Additional technical levels
Source: Fx Street
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