WTI Price Analysis: Oil Prices Reverse Course, Still Holding 20-Day SMA

• WTI is hovering around the $81.30 zone, just above the 20-day SMA.
• Weak economic activity data was reported in the US and EIA crude oil reserves were lower than expected.
• Investors are watching Hurricane Idalia.

In the Wednesday session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) unraveled most of its daily gains, taking the price to a high of $82.00 and settling near $81.30. In terms of data, the US released weak employment numbers, a downwardly revised Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a US Energy Information Administration (EIA) figure. lower than expected.

The US Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) job change survey missed expectations in August. The figure was 177,000, up from 195,000 expected and 371,000 previously. Furthermore, second quarter GDP was revised down to 2.1% year-on-year, pointing to a slowdown in US economic activity. It must be taken into account that the US is the largest consumer of oil in the world, so its economic health has an impact on oil prices. That being said, expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit the downside as lower rates dampen black gold. As for the stock figures, the EIA reported that crude oil reserves fell by more than 10 million, above the 3.26 million expected in the week ending August 25.

In addition, traders’ eyes are on Hurricane Idalia, which has approached major US oil production centers in the Gulf of Mexico, accounting for 15% of US oil production.

WTI levels to watch

Analyzing the daily chart, WTI is showing signs of bullish exhaustion, contributing to a neutral to bearish technical outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates weakening bullish momentum with a negative slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) shows stagnant red bars. Furthermore, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating that the bulls are in command of the bigger picture.

Support levels: $81.15 (20-day SMA), $80.00, $78.50.

Resistance levels: $82.00, $82.50, $83.00.

WTI Daily Chart