WTI soars more than 3% on rising optimism over US debt ceiling talks and EIA forecasts

  • The International Energy Agency expects supply to be 2 million barrels per day below demand in the second half.
  • Positive developments in US debt ceiling negotiations boost market sentiment and lift oil prices.
  • US crude oil prices rise despite rising inventories as China’s economic growth moderates.

He Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) It advanced more than 3% late in the New York session, changing hands around the $72.90 area, on renewed optimism after US debt ceiling talks pointed to a deal. . At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that demand would exceed supply, bolstering oil prices.

Oil demand will exceed supply, while China accounts for 60% of the increase in demand in 2023

The IEA revealed that supply would exceed demand by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of the year, with China accounting for 60% of the increase in oil demand in 2023.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has said he is confident of hitting a debt ceiling as he embarks on a trip to Japan. The speaker of the US House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, commented that he planned to participate in the negotiations, while Biden said that he planned to remain in close contact with the president and the negotiators.

US crude oil prices defy rising US inventories, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Stocks rose 5 million barrels in the past week to 467.6 million barrels, versus analyst expectations for a 900,000 drop.

Apart from this, the latest economic data from China revealed that the economy is moderating its growth. According to sources cited by Reuters, “a set of Chinese macroeconomic data for April released on Tuesday confirmed the narrative of a patchy and slow recovery in the country and continues to weigh on oil market sentiment.”

WTI Price Analysis: Technical Perspective

WTI Daily chart

WTI has regained some ground after dipping below last year’s low of $70.10, hitting a two-week low of $69.44. However, WTI buyers have been approaching the 20-day EMA, which, once broken, could pave the way to test the 50-day EMA at $74.91. Once broken, the next target would be the 100 day EMA at $76.78. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bearish territory, suggesting that sellers are still in control. Therefore, the WTI fails to overcome the area of ​​$73.00 PB and a fall towards the area of ​​$69.00 is expected.

WTI US OIL

Overview
Last price today 73.07
daily change today 2.53
today’s daily variation 3.59
today’s daily opening 70.54
Trends
daily SMA20 73.64
daily SMA50 74.76
daily SMA100 76.41
daily SMA200 80.3
levels
previous daily high 71.76
previous daily low 70.45
Previous Weekly High 73.81
previous weekly low 69.94
Previous Monthly High 83.4
Previous monthly minimum 73.88
Fibonacci daily 38.2 70.95
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 71.26
Daily Pivot Point S1 70.07
Daily Pivot Point S2 69.61
Daily Pivot Point S3 68.76
Daily Pivot Point R1 71.38
Daily Pivot Point R2 72.23
Daily Pivot Point R3 72.69

Source: Fx Street

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