XAU/USD forecast: Gold reaches records in the middle of the commercial war escalation between the US and China

  • The growing tensions between the United States and China put markets in risk aversion mode.
  • Wall Street resumed its bearish route with the three main indices falling more than 4% each.
  • Xau/USD remains with solid profits around $ 3,160 after reaching new historical maximums.

The bright metal shot Thursday, reaching a new historical maximum of 3,175.00 the Troy ounce during negotiation hours in the United States. The US dollar (USD) collapsed to the holders that indicate that the commercial war unleashed by US President Donald Trump is far from having finished.

Trump announced huge retaliation tariffs last week, just to pause most of them on Wednesday. The stock markets collapsed with the original news, recovering with the most optimistic pause. However, the good mood was short. The White House confirmed Thursday that China tariffs amount to 145%, the original 20% plus an additional 125%, which followed the announcement of pekin of retaliation tariffs of 84%.

Tensions between the two countries revived concerns about a possible recession in the United States (USA) around the corner. Even more, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the US published earlier in the day showed that inflationary pressures soften more than anticipated, which will help the Federal Reserve (FED) to extend its waiting position and see on monetary policy. With the inflation in descent and the fears of an economic setback, it is not unreasonable to think that Fed could even increase interest rates in the future.

Wall Street collapsed with the news, falling next to the USD. At the time of writing, the Dow Jones industrial average is down approximately 4%, while Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 give more than 5% each.

Technical perspective

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst of FXSTERET, points out: “The daily graph of the Xau/USD torque shows that additional gains are probable, given the strong bullish impulse. The technical indicators are directed to the north almost vertically, while they are still far from over -opening levels. At the same time, the bright metal extended its advance beyond a simple mobile average (SMA) In 3,052 $.

Bednarik provides that the Xau/USD reach the 3,200 $ region in the next sessions.

Commercial War between the US and China Faqs


In general terms, “Trade War” is a commercial war, an economic conflict between two or more countries due to the extreme protectionism of one of the parties. It implies the creation of commercial barriers, such as tariffs, which are in counterbarreras, increasing import costs and, therefore, the cost of life.


An economic conflict between the United States (USA) and China began in early 2018, when President Donald Trump established commercial barriers against China, claiming unfair commercial practices and theft of intellectual property by the Asian giant. China took retaliation measures, imposing tariffs on multiple American products, such as cars and soybeans. The tensions climbed until the two countries signed the Phase one trade agreement between the US and China in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes in China’s economic and commercial regime and intended to restore stability and confidence between the two nations. Coronavirus pandemia diverted the attention of the conflict. However, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept the tariffs and even added some additional encumbrances.


Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th US president has unleashed a new wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump promised to impose 60% tariff particularly in investment, and directly feeding the inflation of the consumer price index.

Source: Fx Street

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