XBB.1.5 variant could lead to global increase in Covid cases, but WHO risk assessment is low

The World Health Organization (WHO) said this Wednesday (11), that there is a possibility of an increase in the incidence of cases of Covid-19 globally due to the circulation of the XBB.1.5 subvariant of the coronavirus.

However, the Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution (TAG-VE), which advises the organization, rated the risk assessment of the subvariant, which is a recombinant of other Omicron strains, as “low”.

The WHO Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution (TAG-VE) met on 5 January 2023 to discuss the latest evidence on XBB.1.5 and assess the public health risk associated with this variant. In the document, experts say that the variant’s growth advantage estimates are for just one country, the United States.

From October 22, 2022 to January 11, 2023, 5,288 XBB.1.5 variant sequences were reported from 38 countries. Most of these sequences are from the United States (82.2%), United Kingdom (8.1%) and Denmark (2.2%).

WHO and TAG-VE recommend that countries prioritize studies to better address uncertainties related to growth advantage, antibody escape, and severity of XBB.1.5. The guidance outlines suggested timelines, which may vary according to national capacities.

  • Growth advantage analysis of other countries where XBB.1.5 has been detected (1-3 weeks)
  • Neutralization assays using representative human sera from affected communities and XBB.1.5 live virus isolates (2-6 weeks)
  • Benchmarking to detect changes in continuous or ad hoc indicators of severity (4-12 weeks)

According to the WHO, the rapid risk assessment is based on currently available evidence and will be revised regularly as more data from other countries become available.

Scientists have identified the first case of Covid-19 in Brazil caused by the XBB.1.5 variant of the coronavirus. The case confirmed by Rede Dasa is a 54-year-old patient from Indaiatuba, in the interior of São Paulo. According to Dasa, the sample was collected in November 2022, but confirmation of the new variant only occurred recently.

Researcher Marilda Siqueira, from the Oswaldo Cruz Institute (IOC/Fiocruz) says it is difficult to predict the size of a new wave of the disease.

“We have a vaccinated population, but we need to improve the booster rate. This is very important for all groups: both vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and people with chronic diseases, as well as adults and young people, who still have a low reinforcement rate. We also need to reinforce the use of masks in closed places, in crowds and in contact with vulnerable people, as in hospitals, clinics and nursing homes”, says Marilda, in a statement.

Basic care helps prevent Covid-19

Source: CNN Brasil

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