Yields will have to continue rising for the Dollar to continue advancing – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is trading near Friday's levels. Scotiabank economists analyze the outlook for the Dollar.

Seasonal Trends Could Turn Against USD

US 10-year bond yields, around 4.30%, are supportive for the USD, but yields will have to rise further for the USD to continue advancing. It's not clear that the latest data trends can do that, and the recent spike in rates risks reversing quickly if the Fed is more dovish than markets expect on Wednesday.

Seasonal trends can also turn against the Dollar. April is typically a weak month for the DXY after a strong first quarter. Over the past 25 years, the DXY's average return in April has been -0.47%, the second worst month of the year after December.

Source: Fx Street

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