12th Evaluation: ‘Yes’ to the dose, but with asterisks

By Tasos Dasopoulos

The 12th report of the European Commission in the context of enhanced supervision is also expected to be positive, which is linked to the payment of another one of the 8 semi-annual installments of Greek bond profits (ANFA’s / SNP’s).

The Commission will make a positive contribution to the disbursement of the tranche, noting once again progress in a number of reforms. In the implementation of the new bankruptcy code, it will note the intention of the Government to complete the bill for the new real estate management body, for the households that will declare bankruptcy (more than 500 applications have already been collected on the platform of the Special Secretariat for Private Debt), while and the first debt settlements, through the out-of-court debt settlement and second chance mechanism.

There will also be progress in labor, with the implementation of the law on ancillary insurance, as well as in the completion of the land registry, in privatizations and the improvement of the business environment, mainly through the facilitation of licensing.

The “asterisks”

However, even in this report, there will be asterisks on topics that have been open for years, which in the 12th evaluation simply renewed their completion schedules. Particularly:

–The trial of the approximately 30,000 applications of the Katselis law will be extended for one year The new timetable agreed is to be tried by the end of 2022. Previously, the Ministry of Justice, in December, must present to the institutions a specific plan to speed up the trial of these cases which about 80% are concentrated in 5 courts of first instance of the country.

–The overdue debts of the state, which decrease at a slower-than-expected rate, are extended for another six months. The commission gives a new timetable to minimize to 0.1-0.2% of GDP by the end of the first half of 2022. At the same time, the government should activate the mechanisms by which not only will the debts be paid faster, but new ones will not accumulate, as the Greek authorities had promised.

-The third issue that gets a new schedule is award of old outstanding pensions. The Ministry of Labor has accelerated the awards, despite the small success in the project of private participation in the whole process, having cleared about 90,000 out of about 150,000 pending “old” pensions. However, although it has pledged to clear all outstanding pensions in the first quarter of 2022, the Commission will allow until the middle of next year.

The report on the 12th rating will be discussed at the Eurogroup on December 6th and if the procedures for approval by the national parliaments start in time, the installment of the bond profits can be disbursed to Greece before the end of the year.

There are two more installments left

The completion of the 12th evaluation will bring Greece one step closer to exiting the enhanced surveillance regime. The issue is scheduled to be reviewed in the middle of next year. Now, if the process moves normally, then in the middle of next year Greece should, with its exit from enhanced supervision, take the last two installments of the central bank bond profits. One is the regular 8th installment at the end of the 4-year period of enhanced supervision and the second is the installment that should have been given in mid-2019, but was never given because the general elections took place.