Between 2000 and 2019, sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP grew on average by around 4% per year, according to the World Bank. In 2020, the health crisis led to a drop of 3.7%, illustrating the region’s first recession in twenty-five years. For this year, the Bretton Woods institution has just indicated a growth forecast of 2.7% of GDP, which would mean a rebound that is certainly encouraging but still timid compared to the averages recorded in previous years.
The explanations of a growth, even timid, found
“The forecasts of sluggish growth in sub-Saharan Africa (in 2021) are due to the persistence of the Covid-19 epidemic in several countries, which is hindering the resumption of economic activity”, writes the World Bank in a statement released Tuesday and quoted by AFP. “The recovery is expected to be slightly faster – although lower than historical averages – in agricultural exporting countries. The high level of world agricultural commodity prices will likely stimulate activity, ”she continues. She cites among the exporters of agricultural products Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Malawi and Uganda, states where the economy has already “marked a smaller decline” last year.
This recovery will, on the other hand, be more difficult for exporters of metals or oil, she notes. Among the latter, Nigeria, the most populous country and the continent’s largest economy, is expected to post growth of 1.1% in 2021, after a drop of 4.1% of its GDP in 2020.
Serious consequences on populations
Unlike the World Bank which estimates – 3.7% the change in GDP in 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers that Africa has recorded a decline in GDP of 3%, “The worst result ever. observed for the region, ”he comments. For 2021, the IMF forecasts a rebound of 3.1%. As a result, as Africa’s population has continued to grow, per capita income is expected to drop 6.1% in 2020 and 0.2% in 2021. “Tens of millions of people have, as a result, shifted into extreme poverty over the past year or will find themselves in this situation this year, “adds the World Bank, which stresses that the pandemic will put” the sustainable development goals (SDGs) even less within the reach of many countries of the region “.
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