Analysis: Biden will have resentment ahead if Democrats suffer defeat

Joe Biden’s speech is increasingly harsh and alarmist in his fight to gain traction in the midterm elections, which seem to be slipping through the fingers of Democrats and which could leave him with a Congress capable of causing two years of suffering for the White House.

The president of the United States was campaigning on Thursday (27), not in one of the most important states for choosing seats in the Senate, but in New York, to garner votes in a semiconductor factory.

The fact that the White House chief visits a state he won by more than 20 points two years ago shows how his low approval ratings have limited his ability to help his party out of the hole.

Biden argued that the economy was much better than most Americans think, and that if the Republicans win elections next month, they will end what he called a recovery and put Medicare and Social Security on the line. guillotine.

His approach reflects the extremely ordeal electoral environment for Democrats, who are in danger of losing control of the House of Representatives while their hopes of retaining a majority in the Senate appear to wane.

Eleven days before the election, Republicans have been targeting deep blue territories (as Democratic strongholds are called) that would allow them to create a wave that could translate into a significant majority in the House.

The Republican party only needs five seats to turn the House, and it could only get those seats in the Empire State, as Harry Enten of the CNN , on Thursday (27). In addition, the electoral race in the places that will decide the fate of the Senate also seems to be tightening, as in the state of Arizona, for example, where the Democratic senator Mark Kelly already had a clear advantage.

In this week’s debate, Democrats were also shaken by a dubious performance by John Fetterman a Senate candidate from Pennsylvania who still has auditory and processing impairments after suffering a stroke.

The state represents the party’s best chance of securing a seat, and could be instrumental in keeping Democrats in control of the Senate, with 50 seats for each party and where Vice President Kamala Harris has the tie-breaking vote.

In conversation on Thursday (27) with Biden and the governor of New York, Kathy Hochul the majority leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer said he thought the Pennsylvania debate “didn’t hurt us too much” but expressed concern about the Georgia race, saying it’s the state “where we’re going downhill.”

The loss of any of the houses could be disastrous for the president, who is currently preparing for a flurry of Republican investigations involving his administration, his handling of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and his son’s business, Hunter Biden which is under investigation by the Department of Justice.

There is so much uncertainty in the polls after the last elections that it is too early to say with certainty what the status of the election race is. But Biden’s speech on Thursday reflected the weight of these elections for Democrats, and suggested a reaffirmation of the historic pattern in which first-term presidents suffer defeat in such elections, after his party had raised hopes of go against this trend, in the wake of the US Supreme Court having overturned the court decision that allowed broad access to abortion in the country in July this year.

Basically, Biden is being forced to defend, in front of Americans, the idea that things are not as bad as they seem, despite polls showing that the population is dissatisfied with the economy. His speech demonstrated the political impossibility of highlighting undeniably positive aspects of the economy – including optimistic GDP growth figures released Thursday and a historically low unemployment rate – when inflation is at its highest in nearly 40 years. However, Biden’s warnings of fierce political wrangling with Republicans over government rights and spending, in a possible confrontation over a debt ceiling hike, served as a foreshadowing of what could be years of hardship in Washington if political control is divided among the United States. parties.

The president warned that the Republican party’s control of Congress would set off a “time bomb” in the economy. “They’re going to come after welfare,” Biden said at an event in Syracuse. “They’re going to shut down the government, refuse to pay the bills for the first time in history, and put America in a bad debt situation…unless we give in to their demands to cut welfare and Medicare.”

“Nothing will create more chaos or cause more damage to the American economy,” the president commented, admitting that Democrats always warn about the risks to Social Security in elections, but also arguing that the proposals of Republican senators Rick Scott from Florida, and Ron Johnson from Wisconsin, this time really threaten the retirement program.

The government asks for patience, but voters are suffering now

Biden’s speech argued that, when they come to fruition, his policies will repair decades of losses in US industry. He claimed that his government’s trademark bills were passed in a wave of legislation (including a bipartisan infrastructure bill, a law aimed at boosting semiconductor production in the U.S., and another to create a clean energy economy) , would bring jobs and prosperity.

The president further stated that his social spending proposal passed mid-year would further benefit Americans as it would cut long-term health care costs. But the point is that all these measures – if they are successful – will not materialize in time to be felt in this election. There’s a chance they could help Biden in 2024 if he decides to run for re-election, but for now, they’re just an aspiration.

This week’s CNN/SSRS polls in hotly contested states reflect the near-impossible political situation Democrats face in the races for Congress and governor.

Of voters polled, 47% in Wisconsin, 46% in Michigan and 44% in Pennsylvania said the economy and inflation are the most important issue affecting their vote. In each state, the numbers more than double when it comes to the second issue of greatest concern – abortion.

Democrats had hoped that outrage over the Supreme Court’s decision would have neutralized the economic burden ahead of the November 8 election. With 11 days to go until the election, all the evidence suggests that this is not happening, and Republicans have been beefing up the messages about economics and crime.

The latter even reached the gubernatorial race in New York – a state that has not elected a Republican in two decades – and made it unexpectedly competitive. Biden met with Hochul on Thursday in Syracuse, which is also the scene of a fierce legislative race.

In a display of the urgency, Democrats are using probably their best weapon: former President Barack Obama, who will visit five states, starting in Georgia on Friday night, and has shot nearly twenty commercials for television for Democrats and party campaign committees, with new ads appearing nearly every day this week.

Good news for Biden’s economic growth and disconnect

Good news for growth and Biden’s economic disconnect started the day with some unexpected good news – the economy rebounded in the last quarter at an annualized rate of 2.6%, according to initial estimates.

The president presented the numbers as “further proof that the economic recovery continues to advance”. The problem, however, is that he was invoking a vision of an economy that many Americans don’t recognize.

The disconnect between the two realities – that of an economy that is performing strongly in many areas, according to data, and the lived experience in the country – could very well doom the Democrats.

This election is proving to be an object lesson in the pernicious political impact of inflation—something many adult Americans have never experienced, as the last time it unleashed its dark force on everyday life in the country was in the 1980s. When a voter doesn’t keep up with their costs, especially for staples like meat, bread, eggs and gasoline, they end up looking for scapegoats. And Biden, as the president in power, takes the blame.

Biden, for his part, blames external factors for rising costs of living, including Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, something that has also driven up gasoline prices — although they are now falling — and the fallout from the disruption of the supply chain. supplies during the pandemic.

Republicans blame Biden for flooding the system with billions of dollars in cash and putting the economy into an overheating cycle.

In an interview with Phil Mattingly of CNN On Thursday (27), Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged patience, as many of the measures the government has taken to boost the economy will take time to kick in. Still, for Yellen, “inflation is too high — it’s unacceptable and Americans feel it every day,” she admitted in the interview aired on the “Erin Burnett OutFront” show.

The president now finds himself in the predicament of trying to claim credit for the upbeat aspects of the economy, while showing empathy for the pain many Americans are feeling. When he was vice president in the Obama administration, the White House faced a similar problem. The economy was slowly recovering after the Great Recession, but many Americans didn’t feel that at a time of high unemployment. Obama argued, on the eve of the 2010 midterm elections, that handing control of Congress to the Republicans would be like giving car keys back to the people who drove it into a ditch. But voters were not happy, and Republicans took control of the House and made big gains in the Senate.

Now, given the high cost of living, Biden will walk a similar political tightrope. “People continue to have a lot of difficulties with inflation. I grew up in a community, in a place where my dad said, if at the end of the month what you earn doesn’t pay all the bills, you have a real problem,” Biden said this week at a virtual fundraiser for Cindy. Axne, an Iowa state representative running a difficult re-election.

“And even though inflation is lower here than in most developed countries, I know this is no consolation to anyone sitting at the kitchen table trying to put food on the table,” the president continued.

His comment demonstrates that Biden understands, in a profound way, the problem that is likely to be the condemnation of Democrats this election season. But there’s nothing short-term he can do about it.