Analysis: Pro-Putin Leaders Win in Europe, Remember Kremlin Has Friends

After weeks of failing to divide Europe over his war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin enjoyed two small diplomatic victories this weekend.

In both Hungary and Serbia, openly pro-Russian parties comfortably won legislative elections, giving Putin a welcome reminder that despite the international community’s firm and broadly united response to the invasion, he has some friends on his side.

The most significant victory came in the form of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his nationalist Fidesz party winning by hand.

Hungary is a member of the European Union (EU) and NATO, which means Putin can claim to have a friend with seats at the head table of two of his most hated institutions.

On Sunday night, during his victory speech, Orbán urged not just the EU but Ukraine as well.

“We have a victory that can be seen from the moon, and it can certainly be seen from Brussels,” he said, adding that Fidesz “will remember this victory until the end of our lives because we had to fight a lot of opponents. ” Included in that list of opponents were Brussels bureaucrats, international media and, pointedly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zelensky directly criticized Orbán for not supporting Ukraine as enthusiastically as many of his European counterparts have done in recent weeks.

Putin was quick to congratulate Orbán on his victory. But few believe it will be much more than a token victory and will do little to affect the EU’s resolve on Ukraine.

The reality is that Orbán was expected to win and the EU has been working around his leadership for years. Despite dragging his feet from the start, Orbán has agreed to EU sanctions against Russia and is largely in line with the rest of the Western alliance.

Hungary’s main roadblock in terms of supporting Ukraine has been Orbán’s reluctance to let weapons flow through his country to support Ukrainian troops.

Hungary is also the main obstacle in the EU’s negotiations on a ban on energy imports from Russia.

Germany said over the weekend that the bloc needed to discuss banning Russian gas following reports of war crimes committed in Ukraine — a move Orbán has repeatedly dismissed.

Hungary’s stubbornness has angered its main ally, Poland, another major violator of Europe’s rule of law, which has used its veto powers to shield Orbán from EU punishment several times in recent years. It is unclear whether Poland will do this after the war is over.

Hungary has strayed far from EU values ​​on the rule of law and human rights, cracking down on cultural institutions and suppressing press freedom.

Most attempts to punish Hungary at the EU level have failed, not least because significant action would require all EU member states to agree to a vote.

Poland and Hungary recently made a pact of sorts, effectively both exercising their EU vetoes to protect the other.

However, Poland is arguably the biggest anti-Russia hawk in the EU and so far it is unclear how this will affect the Poland-Hungary axis once the war is over.

And since the beginning of the war, EU officials have been quietly talking about offering Poland incentives to get closer to the rest of the bloc, rather than treating Poland and Hungary like two criminals.

The situation is very different in Serbia as it is not a member of the EU or NATO. It is currently undergoing the EU accession process, with negotiations expected to end in the next two years.

Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić has been put in a difficult position by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For years, he has tried to balance maintaining strong diplomatic and economic ties with Russia (and a special fondness for Putin) with the Western embrace that would come with full EU membership.

During the election campaign, Vučić did not deviate from that balance and ran on a platform of peace and stability in the region, Reuters reported.

Serbia is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas, while its army maintains ties to the Russian military.

Although Serbia supported two United Nations (UN) resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it refused to impose sanctions against Moscow, Reuters reported.

The Kremlin also supports Belgrade’s opposition to Kosovo’s independence, blocking its membership of the United Nations.

There is little doubt that the results of the weekend’s elections — particularly in Hungary — will have made Putin smile and leaders in Brussels keep their heads in their hands. For the EU, though, more Orbán really means more of the same.

It could provide Putin with some propaganda victories and could put the brakes on broader EU plans in the future. But the EU has been working on ways around Orbán for years and knows that when the pressure comes, Orbán is happier inside the club causing trouble than planning to leave.