In early February, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing to a warm welcome from Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as the two strongmen gave a show of unity across the world at the Winter Olympics.
The summit, at which the two touted their growing ties and protested NATO expansion, was held three weeks before Putin ordered his tanks into Ukraine. While it is not known whether the topic of war came up during the talks, one thing is now clear: seven months later, the invasion was anything but planned.
Putin has just suffered perhaps his worst week since the early days of the war, when his troops were defeated in Kiev and forced to retreat.
Ukraine’s recapture in recent days of more than 6,000 square kilometers of territory – more than Russia has captured in all of its operations since April – is another humiliating loss for Putin, who has seen his invasion falter and his friend list on the global stage. decreases.
Criticism of Putin is growing even among his supporters in Russia, and he could bluntly win with a victory. Fortunately for Putin, an opportunity presents itself on Thursday, when he holds his first face-to-face meeting with Xi since the invasion began, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. ) in Uzbekistan.
Much is said about the relationship between Russia and China, which has only strengthened since the beginning of the war. Experts say Putin will likely be counting on Beijing more than ever after his battlefield setbacks.
“Russia trusts China to demonstrate to the world that their strong bond is a symbol of unsuccessful international isolation despite severe Western sanctions,” said Velina Tchakarova, director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy in Vienna.
At a time when the West’s resolve against Russia appears to be hardening, and as more nations join NATO and provide assistance to Ukraine, the longer the war persists, the support of the most powerful anti-Western nation in the world would naturally be of great value for Putin.
“China’s support helps Moscow to spread Russian narratives, like blaming EU sanctions for the food crisis, blaming NATO for starting the war. This creates a common denominator: dissatisfaction with the US-led West and the positive case for closer ties with China,” Tchakarova said.
Russia has talked about China’s support in recent days. Last week, China’s top lawmaker Li Zhanshu met with the chairman of Russia’s State Duma and other Russian lawmakers in Moscow.
According to the Duma, Li said that “China understands and supports Russia on issues representing its vital interests, in particular the situation in Ukraine… We see that the United States and its NATO allies are expanding their presence near Russian borders, seriously threatening the national security and lives of Russian citizens.”
However, these quotes were not present in the Chinese reading of the meeting, which raises the question of how formally China is willing to support Russia as its invasion of Ukraine shows no signs of ending.
“Obviously China doesn’t want Russia to fall apart and, in an ideal world, would take a steady lead from Putin over anything else,” said Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese studies at King’s College London.
However, he added that “Ukraine will be an unwelcome problem that Beijing would rather see disappear. Of course, China doesn’t trust NATO and the West, but that doesn’t mean it’s Russia’s best friend. China is ultimately self-interested, and this instability does not obviously help China.”
Viewing China’s support for Russia so far through the lens of self-interest may give some indication of where Beijing’s thinking is – especially in the run-up to next month’s big political meeting in Beijing, where Xi is expected to take on a third term in office. Beijing, cementing its role as China’s most powerful leader in decades.
Trade between the two countries grew in the first six months of 2022 despite the war. China just last week agreed to start paying for Russian gas in yuan and rubles instead of dollars, bypassing many of the sanctions in place on Russian energy exports.
This economic support, combined with NATO and the West’s blame for the war, is in China’s interest. What experts say is less likely to be in China’s interest, however, is providing the military assistance Russia appears to need as its war progresses.
Ukrainian gains over the weekend, international sanctions, export controls and Moscow’s strategic mistakes made it clear that Russia may have a military supply problem. Last week, a US official told the CNN that Putin was buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea.
“This does not mean that supplies are necessarily close to depletion, but they could be crossing the line from contingency stockpiles to wider conflict and/or future,” Joseph Dempsey, research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN . “Even if the conflict ended today, it could take many years to fill in what was lost in Ukraine.”
As welcome as China’s money is in Moscow, the longer the war drags on, the more pressing Russia’s shortages could become. Export controls make importing weapons – along with the tools to make them – more difficult. And for the kind of equipment Russia needs, there are a finite number of sources. If China doesn’t help, Russia’s options become even smaller.
Russia’s potential despair, says Dempsey, risks creating another complication.
“Of course, a broader concern with arms supplies to Russia is what an increasingly desperate Russia might be willing to give in return, particularly in the case of Iran and North Korea – the latter remaining under an embargo. Comprehensive Weapons Act.”
So what can Putin expect to announce after his meeting with Xi? No doubt there will be more commitments to the economic relationship, and China is unlikely to suddenly tone down its rhetoric about the West.
But the reality for Putin is that there is much Xi can do to counter the action the West has taken against Russia. And after a week of massive battlefield losses, this should worry the man who once believed his war would be over in a few days.
Source: CNN Brasil
I’m James Harper, a highly experienced and accomplished news writer for World Stock Market. I have been writing in the Politics section of the website for over five years, providing readers with up-to-date and insightful information about current events in politics. My work is widely read and respected by many industry professionals as well as laymen.
