Editor’s note: Jorge G. Castañeda is a collaborator at CNN. He was Secretary of Foreign Relations of Mexico from 2000 to 2003, during the government of Vicente Fox Quesada. He is currently a professor at New York University and his most recent book, “America Through Foreign Eyes”, was published by Oxford University Press in 2020. The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author.
The impact of the 2024 US presidential elections on Latin America will vary from one country to another.
Perhaps the best way to assess the influence of the presidential vote in the United States is issue by issue, understanding that some are much more important for certain countries than for others.
Probably the most relevant issue in the campaign for Latin America is immigration.
At first glance, it appears that a Donald Trump victory would be catastrophic for the US, while a Kamala Harris success could be seen as less damaging.
But given the close similarity between the first Trump administration’s actual policies toward immigrants and President Joe Biden’s positions, as well as Kamala’s campaign statements, the contrast becomes less stark.
The next president will likely take a tougher stance on immigration than his predecessors, but with predictable limits imposed by courts, migration activists and home country governments that will not be easily accepted by large numbers of deported immigrants. .
Regarding the other crucial issue for some Latin American nations, namely drugs and organized crime, a similar situation is likely to prevail.
America’s perpetual war on drugs now centers on fentanyl, largely involving Mexico.
Fentanyl overdoses have caused nearly 75,000 deaths in 2023, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Both Kamala and Trump have taken a tough stance on the issue, and while the former president is more strident – as on almost everything – it seems likely that a new Democratic administration will continue to pressure Mexico and China to do more to stop precursor transfers. , chemicals of this substance from Asia to Mexico, where the pills are produced and transported to the United States.
As Mark Esper, Trump’s defense secretary, wrote in his memoir, the former president threatened to bomb drug laboratories in other countries, which is, of course, implausible.
But a more interventionist approach from Washington is almost certain, whoever wins.
Crisis in Venezuela and Cuba
The crisis in Venezuela, triggered by Nicolás Maduro in the contested presidential elections held in June 2024, is another issue of dispute between the United States and at least part of Latin America, which the next administration will be forced to resolve.
Despite evidence of opposition victory, there are few discernible obstacles to Maduro remaining in power and assuming a new term on January 10, 2025.
All of this puts Venezuela’s Latin American neighbors and the incoming administration in Washington at odds.
If Trump is re-elected, he may consider returning to the “maximum pressure” strategy that failed in his first term.
If Kamala wins, she may consider preserving Biden’s policy of imposing some sanctions and lifting others in exchange for political commitments from Maduro, a strategy that has also failed.
Although the Cuban issue has plagued Washington since 1959, and although unprecedented migration flows from the island have generated new tensions with the United States, this is perhaps a less crucial issue today.
Thousands of Cubans have arrived in the US since 2022, at a time when the island is going through its worst economic crisis since the revolution.
Although Trump’s tightening of sanctions against Havana failed to topple the regime or make it more flexible in its negotiations with Washington, Barack Obama’s thaw in 2015-2016 also failed to make much difference, at least in terms of a policy of opening.
Under normal circumstances, the next administration could simply ignore the island, but the immigration issue will not allow that to happen.
Rivalry with China
Finally, the growing rivalry – or new Cold War – between the United States and China will have a lasting and profound impact on Latin America.
So far, the growing Chinese presence in the area has generated little conflict between the region’s governments and Washington.
In trade, investment, strategic minerals and even military ties, tensions between the two superpowers could begin to spread across Latin America. Both American candidates are moving in this direction.
In trade terms, China is already the country’s main trading partner. Brazil to whom the Asian country sells more than twice as much as to the United States, according to official data.
In the near future, the main threat lies with the Mexico and other nations where companies from that country may have established themselves or intend to do so to avoid U.S. tariffs on products imported directly from Asia.
China is taking a growing share of Mexico’s admittedly small electric car market, and American automakers are already complaining.
This trend may not yet be affecting other Latin American nations, but many of them have free trade agreements with the US: Chile, Colombia, Panama, Peru, Central America and the Dominican Republic.
There are two other difficulties arising from the new Cold War.
Chinese military involvement in Latin America is practically nil so far, with the possible exception of a satellite ground station in southern Argentina .
But for countries with close geopolitical ties to China – Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua – it may be difficult to resist the temptation to move in that direction, as is the case with Beijing.
Finally, China’s leadership in the so-called Global South and its close relationship with the Russia, Iran, North Korea and others, will also fuel diplomatic concerns for several Latin American countries.
Most nations in the region refused to impose sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, and several reacted with discomfort or even anger to Israeli incursions into Gaza and Lebanon.
So far, Washington has not done much in this regard. But a Trump administration may be inclined to do so, given the former president’s transactional approach to international affairs.
On the contrary: a possible Kamala presidency could bring greater flexibility to the Middle East, but this would hardly be the case in Ukraine.
In any case, the current upheavals in the world are unlikely to fail to affect Latin America.
In conclusion, the team that takes office and power next January in Washington will face a series of challenges in Latin America, and the region’s leaders will be forced to deal with an administration that, on several fronts, will be hostile.
None of the issues analyzed here will be resolved in the next four years, and most of them – migration, organized crime, Cuba, trade – have existed for decades.
Regardless of who is in the White House or in the presidential palaces of Latin America, different forms of agreement, negotiation and management of disagreements will be found and possibly improved.
No one should expect major advances in the relationship between the two halves of the hemisphere, nor dramatic regressions. The most likely scenario is the perpetuation of the status quo: an uninspiring but acceptable prospect.
This content was originally published in Analysis: The impact of the US elections in Latin America on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
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