Analysis: What are China’s interests in condemning the expansion of NATO

When the Russian military launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine last month, Beijing appeared to be on Moscow’s side, accusing the United States and its NATO allies of provoking the conflict by allowing its security bloc to expand eastward.

Now, as China faces pressure from the West to condemn the Russian invasion, a similar narrative is growing to talk about US intentions in Asia.

In recent days, senior Chinese Foreign Ministry officials and influential Communist Party publications have accused the US of trying to build a NATO-like bloc in the Indo-Pacific, with an official warning of “unimaginable” consequences if that happens.

At a conference in Beijing on Saturday, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said the crisis in Ukraine could be used as a “mirror” to view the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region. .

Le did not name the US, but referred explicitly to the Indo-Pacific strategy – a plan the Biden administration detailed last month to strengthen the US role in the region, for example, by supporting democracy and strengthening its alliances and partnerships, including with Taiwan.

Creating “small, closed and exclusive circles or groups” in the region “is as dangerous as NATO’s eastward expansion strategy in Europe,” Le said at the event at Tsinghua University, according to a version of the speech published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. China’s Foreign Affairs.

“If it continues unchecked, it would bring unimaginable consequences and ultimately bring Asia-Pacific to the brink of an abyss,” he said.

China’s criticism of NATO follows attempts to portray itself as a neutral actor in the Ukraine crisis, refusing to denounce Russia’s attacks on civilians, while emphasizing its humanitarian aid to Ukraine and denying it considers providing military support to Moscow.

However, China’s attempt to draw parallels between US strategy in the Indo-Pacific and NATO’s eastward expansion in Europe echoes Moscow’s talking points, raising serious doubts about Beijing’s supposed neutrality.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has repeatedly tried to use concerns about NATO to justify his brutal invasion of Ukraine. Now, experts say China is trying to use the ongoing crisis in Ukraine not just to broaden its view of the US as an alleged instigator of conflict, whether in Europe or Asia, but to warn of the consequences if the US and the countries of the region align themselves against China.

China “takes advantage of” crisis

Washington’s emphasis on the Indo-Pacific has come as China adopts a more aggressive foreign policy, increasing its territorial claims while taking a tougher line in response to perceived challenges.

In recent years, China has rejected a UN court ruling condemning its vast territorial claims in the South China Sea, while continuing to militarize its positions there and harass other claimants. Threats to Taiwan’s self-government have also increased, with record incursions by fighter jets into the island’s air defense zone in recent months.

“It’s no surprise that China is taking advantage of the Ukraine crisis to attack the Indo-Pacific strategy,” said Li Mingjiang, associate professor and dean chair of international relations at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at the University of Singapore. . Nanyang Technological University.

Li highlighted China’s “growing anxieties” over the rejuvenation of the “Quad” security forum between India, Japan, Australia and the US, and the AUKUS security pact between Australia, the UK and the US, as well as the strong US commitment to maintain its long-standing role in the region, outlined in Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy last month.

“The intent is clear – China wants to send this message to the US and countries in the region that the Indo-Pacific strategy and US security alliances can also generate some security dynamics similar to those seen in Europe, involving Russia.” . said Li.

That message is also being sent ahead of an “extraordinary” NATO summit on Thursday, where US President Joe Biden will meet with allied leaders in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine – in another demonstration of the striking solidarity of the block since the beginning of The Crisis.

A message to the USA

Vice Foreign Minister Le’s warnings about the US presence in the Indo-Pacific were echoed on Monday (21) by the Chinese ambassador to ASEAN, at a press conference in Jakarta.

There, Ambassador Deng Xijun accused the US of “creating a set of ‘gang rules’ while claiming to uphold the international order” and leading the region “down an evil path”, according to Chinese state media The Paper.

A similar tone was adopted in an opinion piece in the China People’s Liberation Army Daily, republished last weekend on the website of influential Communist Party newspaper Qiushi, which took aim at the Indo-Pacific strategy and said the creation of blocs by the US was an “important reason for the continued souring and escalation of the Ukraine question”.

This is not the first time that China has sought to draw parallels between US strategy in the Indo-Pacific and that of NATO in recent years, and the concerns are at the heart of a fundamental stance that has brought Russia and China closer: their mutual US distrust.

This was highlighted in a 5,000-word joint statement released weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, in which both expressed their opposition to “NATO’s further expansion” and pledged to “remain highly vigilant about the negative impact of the Indo-Pacific plan of the U.S.”

But experts point out that there are big differences between NATO, a security alliance, and the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific, which is not just about security but includes a range of policies. The US, with its extensive border with the Pacific Ocean and the island state of Hawaii, also has territories in the Indo-Pacific, including Guam.

Other nations have also increased activities in the region in an effort to counter China’s influence. Last year, Britain sent its biggest concentration of sea and air power to joint exercises in the Philippine Sea, while Germany sent a warship across the South China Sea for the first time in nearly two decades. France also announced last year a plan to increase its maritime cooperation with the South Pacific. China has often opposed these actions, condemning what it sees as efforts to contain it.

The Chinese stance, meanwhile, ignores the fact that US security partnerships came in response to China’s rapid military modernization, according to Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

The US is “increasingly drawn to deeper and stronger security alliances because of (China’s military) modernization” and Beijing’s “lack of openness and transparency” about its intentions towards its neighbors, Thompson said.

But China’s leaders “do not see a connection between other countries in the region against China’s military modernization” through relationships with the US, he added.

The Taiwan issue

Another issue much closer territorially may also explain why China is keen to voice its concerns about the US in the Asia-Pacific region amid the Ukraine-Taiwan crisis.

This was hinted at in a 110-minute video meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Friday, where Xi’s Taiwan concerns were clearly a focal point. to the Chinese side.

“Some people in the US sent the wrong signal to the forces of ‘Taiwan independence’. This is very dangerous. Mishandling the Taiwan issue will have a disruptive impact on bilateral ties,” Xi told Biden, according to a statement. of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Analysts have compared authoritarian threats to Ukraine and Taiwan, an autonomous island that Beijing claims as its own and has not ruled out the possibility of taking it by force. Earlier this month, a group of former US defense and security officials traveled to Taipei as a sign of US support amid the European crisis.

This also ties in with China’s biggest concerns in the Indo-Pacific, said Li of RSIS.

“If there is a conflict over the Taiwan issue, the worst case scenario would be that China would not only have to fight a war against Taiwan, against the US, but maybe against some US allies as well,” he said.