THE war in Ukraine to be continued. The bombardment by Russian forces since February 24 has been destroying Ukrainian territories one by one, with millions of people fleeing their country in search of security in Europe. The West is rallying against Vladimir Putin while China remains an observer.
At some point the fires in the burning country will go out and the clashes will stop. But who will be the big loser in the end? Is there a case for the European Union to accept Volodymyr Zelensky in its “arms”? Will Russia eventually become a rogue state? The answers to Newsbeast’s questions are given by the international expert Konstantinos Filis.
The director of the Institute of Global Affairs and associate professor of the American College of Greece analyzes the role played by the Azov Order in the Russian invasion, while at the same time explaining the difficulties that the new refugee flows in Europe will create.
“In moral terms, the big loser is Russia, but the biggest is in danger of becoming Ukraine, where it will take years to stand on its own two feet.”
According to internationalist Konstantinos Filis, at the moment no one can make the slightest assessment of what the course of the war in Ukraine will be.
“In moral terms, the big loser is Russia, in terms of diplomacy and economy, one of the losers is Russia. The biggest losers, of course, are Ukraine and its citizens, the people and the soldiers who are dying every day. The Ukrainian economy is collapsing. “We will see if in the future there will be interest from donors so that they can restore it as soon as possible, depending of course on the status of Ukraine,” said Konstantinos Filis.
“Ukrainian infrastructure is being damaged, military infrastructure is also being destroyed, and this is part of the operation to demilitarize Ukraine,” the Russians said. So the assumed fact is that the big loser will be Ukraine, although its leadership managed, due to Russian aggression, to get back on the map and arouse Western interest. The question of course is how long this will last. Beyond that, in the game that is being played between Russians and Americans for the time being, Russia is in a difficult position because it has been isolated internationally. This was proved on Wednesday (2/3) by the resolution of the United Nations “, notes the director of the Institute of Global Affairs.
“Russia will suffer a lot”
Focusing on Russia the professor, Konstantinos Filis, points out that she will be in a lot of pain from the sanctions that have been imposed on her. “Of course we will see the depth, extent and timing of the sanctions depending on how Russia itself moves with its military operations. Immigration of a small number of Russians to Finland or queues in front of ATMs may indicate a trend. How will the Russian leadership explain this? That the Russians are “paying” for a war for no apparent reason, beyond what is heard from the country’s officials. The problem, however, will also become a problem for the West if Russia chooses to hit not only military but also human targets. “This will put pressure on the West, mainly because it will be considered that the Westerners are not doing enough to be able to prevent Russia from committing atrocities,” explains the associate professor of the American College of Greece.
“The power of the image right now has Russia in a clear position of weakness, However, it can also put the westerners in a very difficult position if the operations continue and in fact they have much bigger civilian casualties than until today “, adds the international affairs analyst of ANT1.
“No one should want Russia to become a rogue state”
Speaking to Newsbeast, Konstantinos Filis emphasizes that Russia can be turned into a state – a pariah, but clarified that no one should want it. “This is going to be a very bad development for Europe, maybe less for the United States.
“For the European Union, marginalizing Russia from the developments and becoming an aggressive force, a force that will consider its defense to be its offensive and will attack to defend itself, will be a very bad development,” he said.
«With Russia marginalized, the European Union will have mutilated a significant part of Europe and will have a somewhat unpredictable player, uncooperative who would more easily “fall” and with bad terms for him in the “arms” of China.
“All this is a bad development, I think, for America as well, for the western world as a whole, and it would be good if it could have been avoided,” the internationalist underlines. “If we think rationally, we should leave a way out in strict terms to Putin, but who can save the pretexts,” he added.
Why Ukraine can not join the EU
“THE Ukraine’s accession to the European Union it is not something that can realistically be done at this stage “, clarifies Konstantinos Filis.
“When the EU excludes the Balkans with the problems and burdens that they carry and are smaller than those of Ukraine, each of us can understand that the case of Zelensky’s country’s accession would create more suffering than it would solve. The procedures could have been done at another time. They were not made from there and beyond, the situation is very specific.
Ukraine can not join the EU in the current circumstances, especially since we do not know which part of the country we are talking about. “Even if it was overcome that it does not meet the conditions, something that you say that one overlooks for the security of the country, would be a wrong action,” he points out.
The gathering of the West and the attitude of China
Focusing on the attitude of the West towards Vladimir Putin Konstantinos Filis emphasizes that “we see it more than ever united. “Even Hungary was in favor of sanctions and was forced to take a stand against Russia even if it was more cautious than other countries.”
«China is rather in a situation that discreetly supports Russia but with a limit as it will not be easy for her to continue doing so if she chooses to continue in that particular pattern. “The Chinese are currently enjoying the fact that an opponent such as the West is deteriorating and another player, who is not an opponent but is not a strategic partner as some consider him, is that Russia is also deteriorating,” said Konstantinos Filis.
“I think that China has nothing to do but wait and watch what happens because what is happening is working in its favor for the time being. “If things get out of hand then the situation will be very difficult for China as well because it will not be able to support Russia that has crossed the Rubicon and we do not know if it will be able to recover.”
“With 6 million displaced Ukrainians, things are very difficult”
Referring to the millions of Ukrainians who will leave Ukraine in search of a safe country to host them, internationalist Konstantinos Filis analyzes the dangers that may arise in the future and in the event that the war continues for a long time.
“When we already have 6 million displaced Ukrainians from their homes and about 1 million have already left Ukraine, it seems that things are very difficult. We do not yet know where they will go. Greece has already said that it is ready to accept some of them but there will certainly be a lot of pressure in Europe. There are estimates that as many as 11 million could migrate. And with a significantly smaller number of people arriving in Europe, the initially positive reception may later give way to extremist formations coming out against them. Much more if some of these nationalist / far-right elements maintain ties to circles in Moscow.
At the moment, because of the moral and humanitarian issue, these people are welcome. But if the war continues and the number of refugees grows, we may see some European countries and leaders change their minds. and become tougher as happened in 2015 and 2016 “he states characteristically.
The role played by the Order of Azov in the Russian invasion
“From 2014-2015 onwards, many strategic mistakes were made by the Ukrainian side. One of them was that successive governments did not respect the Minsk agreements, which they considered to be lions, and in fact they did it with the pistol in the temple of Kiev. However, these agreements were not asked by the Ukrainians to review them, they were not respected and this is what Russia claims. Not that there is any excuse for what he is doing (I make it clear) is a blatant violation of international law, inviolability of borders, territorial sovereignty and integrity. Everything is a violation on the part of Russiaunderlines the director of the Institute of Global Affairs and associate professor of the American College of Greece.
“The truth is that the Ukrainians have made mistakes since 2014 and it is also true that because the Ukrainian forces could not function in the separatist regions, they had taken over the role, replacing them, paramilitary groups including the Order of Azov. “This Order contains fascist elements, remnants of the Nazi occupation of Ukraine, which have a strong anti-Russian stance and continue to operate – with the tolerance of Kiev – in the region,” notes Konstantinos Filis.
“In order not to lose credibility, the West must condemn these practices, but also acknowledge (at least to Russia) Kiev’s mistakes after 2014 and push for their correction if order is to be restored.” emphasizes.
“What Russia has achieved is the first since 2014 to create a Ukrainian conscience that has a strong anti-Russian element and to show that Azov’s battalions are supposedly defending Ukraine and its territorial integrity against the occupying forces. “This in itself shows the degree of failure of Russian policy in Ukraine,” he said.
Source: News Beast
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