- AUD/USD fails to recapture the 0.7500 mark for the seventh consecutive trading day.
- Mixed macro data out of the US was no excuse for the dollar to rally against most G8 currencies.
- AUD/USD Price Forecast: The pair broke above the 0.7500 mark, exposing AUD/USD to bearish pressure.
The AUD/USD barely advances during the American session as the market mood turns sour. US stocks are posting losses, while US Treasury yields at the short end of the curve are rising more than long-term maturities, indicating that the US economy. could slow due to aggressive Fed hikes. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7490.
Mixed US economic data and risk-off mood buoy USD
Factors such as the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and high global prices changed the mood of investors. Earlier in the day, the US Department of Labor released the non-farm payrolls report for March, which came in with 431,000 jobs added, below the 490,000 forecast by economists. Although that was a bit lower than estimated, the forecasts were 0-700,000, so the market perceived it as a strong report. In addition, the Unemployment Rate fell from 3.8% annually in February to 3.6% in March and exceeded the expected 3.7%.
Subsequently, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, a leading industry gauge, fell to 57.1 in March from 58.6 in February, well below analysts’ estimates of 59.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the dollar’s value against its peers, is up 0.32% to 98.666, supported by high US Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up three basis points to 2,360%, though down from 2 basis points at 2,428%, inverting the curve for the second time this week.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Over the past seven days, AUD/USD price action has hovered around the 0.7500 mark but has so far failed to hold above it. It is worth noting that the candlesticks, most of them, printed a larger wick on top of the real bodies, suggesting that solid resistance could limit the latest moves. Furthermore, the failure to recapture the daily high of 0.7555 on Oct 28, 2021 left the pair vulnerable to bearish pressure.
Therefore, the first support level for the AUD/USD would be the daily high of Sep 3, 2021 at 0.7478. A sustained break would expose the daily high of Mar 7 at 0.7441, followed by 0.7400, and the daily high of Nov 15, 2021 at 0.7370.
|Last Price Today||0.7499|
|Today’s Daily Change||0.0015|
|Today’s Daily Change %||0.20|
|Today’s Daily Opening||0.7484|
|20 Daily SMA||0.7389|
|50 Daily SMA||0.7254|
|100 Daily SMA||0.7225|
|200 Daily SMA||0.7298|
|Previous Daily High||0.7527|
|Previous Daily Minimum||0.747|
|Previous Maximum Weekly||0.7537|
|Previous Weekly Minimum||0.7372|
|Monthly Prior Maximum||0.7541|
|Previous Monthly Minimum||0.7165|
|Daily Fibonacci 38.2%||0.7491|
|Daily Fibonacci 61.8%||0.7505|
|Daily Pivot Point S1||0.746|
|Daily Pivot Point S2||0.7436|
|Daily Pivot Point S3||0.7403|
|Daily Pivot Point R1||0.7518|
|Daily Pivot Point R2||0.7551|
|Daily Pivot Point R3||0.7575|
Source: Fx Street