Australia: Soft Q2 core inflation is a relief for RBA – UOB Group

Australian consumer price inflation rose in the second quarter of 2024, but underlying inflation surprised on the downside, says UOB Group economist Lee Sue Ann.

Housing and food costs rise

“Australian consumer price inflation rose in the second quarter of 2024 due to rising housing and food costs, but underlying inflation surprised on the downside. A closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed average, rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, after rising 1.0% in the first quarter of 2024. The annual pace slowed to 3.9% from 4.0%, the lowest since early 2022.”

“The latest inflation figures are certainly a relief for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It should be recalled that at the last monetary policy meeting on 18 June, the RBA had warned that there were still reasons to be vigilant regarding inflation risks.”

“We have always held that the central bank is likely to remain on hold for longer, rather than hike in the near term. Today’s data certainly reinforces our base case. All eyes will now turn to the RBA meeting on 6 August, where the central bank will also publish updated economic forecasts alongside the decision.”

Source: Fx Street

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