Black Friday month, November has a drop of 0.9% in consumption intention, says research

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The survey of Consumption Intention of Families (ICF), by the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), released this Monday (22), records a monthly drop of 0.9% in purchase intention in comparison to October.

The indicator ranges from zero to 200 points and assesses the perception of families about consumption, income and work at the moment until the next six months. In November it was 73.4 points. On the scale, 100 is considered the neutrality point.

Despite the decline, the index grew by 5.1% compared to the same month in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.

Coordinator of the study, economist Catarina Carneiro explains that the country’s economic and political situation leads to insecurity for families, which directly impacts the way in which future expenses are organized and makes consumers more cautious.

“Families are noticing a more uncertain situation with the rise in inflation and interest rates, and it is not known how far inflation will reach. This makes us worried when consuming. Since 2015, the index has been below 100, which is the satisfactory level. In February 2020, just before the start of the pandemic, it was at 99.9 points. But the pandemic came and we had this downfall. So, crises usually change the consumer’s perception”, stated the researcher

The survey also pointed to a drop of one percentage point in the perception of the current level of household consumption. This component, analyzed in the same way, was 58 points.

However, throughout the year, it has risen by 9.4%. According to the coordinator, the increase in interest rates and inflation affect the population’s purchasing power, reducing consumption.

Dissatisfaction with consumption

The study also analyzed satisfaction with current income. The component dropped by 0.3% and is at 80.1 points.

The category that earns up to ten minimum wages adds up to 69.6 points. In the group with income above this portion, dissatisfaction is lower: 91.4 points. However, both social strata showed a drop in monthly variation: 0.9% among those with lower incomes, and 1.3% in the portion with higher maturities.

“The richest families were able to save, have an increase in savings, because of this fear of the future, but they also had a loss in their consumption pattern, having to buy the basics. Now with the flexibilization, the richest families are becoming more satisfied, but suffering greater variations”, concludes Catarina Carneiro.

The consultation noticed even more difficulty in accessing credit, which dropped 2.3% and is at 80.3 points.

Among the positive highlights, the main one pointed out by the survey was the short-term job market, with growth of 0.2% in current employment.

Most respondents (36.3%) feel as secure with their job as in the same period last year. A proportion, however, is lower than in the previous month (37%), but higher than in November 2020 (33%).

The consumption perspective for the next three months showed a slight recovery: 49.6% of families believe that they will consume less in this period.

In October, the proportion was 49.8%. The result is the lowest since April 2020, when only 9.5% of households believed they would consume less.

Reference: CNN Brasil

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