The reduction in the price of electric vehicles will have a dynamic effect on sales from 2025-2030. It is estimated that during this period, the number of electric cars sold will quadruple to 26 million cars.
According to analysts at Bloomberg NEF, the number is expected to double further, reaching 54 million in 2040. As a result of these sales, electric cars in that time period will already have a 58% share of global sales. However, the price of electric cars will not be the only factor that will determine their growing popularity, as recently there has been a strong debate about the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector.
In Europe, cars with internal combustion engines will be phased out by 2035, while many European governments are already subsidizing the purchase of electric cars. Over time, this will lead to a drastic reduction in the number of internal combustion cars. Many even believe that owning a vehicle with an internal combustion engine will become a hobby for classic car enthusiasts.
The reduction in the price of electric cars will be influenced by the drop in battery production costs, which currently account for up to 40% of the value of the entire car. Despite the rise of raw materials and energy, the technology will reach such levels that the drop in the price of batteries will be possible. Analysts predict a decline in the long term, which will be driven by more efficient production technologies, the opening of new factories and technological innovations. Costs below 100 dollars per kilowatt-hour are considered an important threshold for the development of electric mobility.
According to the Bloomberg NEF report, the tipping point is expected to be in 2026, when the average purchase cost of a mid-size internal combustion car and an electric car will equalize. After 2027, the prices of electric cars will become lower and lower, while internal combustion cars will become slightly more expensive. In 2030, for example, the price of an electric car is expected to be several thousand below that of an internal combustion car.
Of course, the biggest problem remains the lack of infrastructure, which worries even the most optimistic of motoring. But what is certain is that the transition will happen quickly and most problems will be resolved within a short period of time. If this particular problem is solved, but also with the locking of the kilowatt-hour price by electricity providers at public charging stations, even the short range in electric cars will not be a problem for long journeys.