Driven by a combination of high risk of malnutrition or premature death, limited access to education and low quality of learning, a Brazilian born in 2019 will, on average, reach 60% of their potential by the age of 18. This means that 40% of all Brazilian talent is retained, according to the report on Brazilian Human Capital produced by the World Bank and released this Tuesday (4th).
The Human Capital Index (HCI) considers infant mortality and stunting rates, expected years of schooling, harmonized learning outcomes and survival rates to arrive at the indicator, which ranges from 0 to 1.
This is the first time that Brazil has reached 0.60. In 2007, the country scored 0.53 and went to 0.58 in 2015. There was a drop again in 2017 and the recovery came in 2019.
The World Bank’s expectation, however, is that 2021 will show an abrupt drop in the ICH because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The estimate is that the ICH reaches 0.54 in the most realistic scenario. The study suggests that, for the index to be recovered, investment should focus mainly on access to education.
According to the report, Brazil would need 60 years to reach the level of human capital that developed countries currently have.
regional differences
Despite the updated national index being the highest in the historical series, the country’s municipalities and states register unequal ICH.
While São Paulo has a state ICH of 0.63, the state of Pará has an index of 0.54, for example. The two states summarize the inequality suffered by the North and Northeast regions compared to the Southeast. According to the study, children from the North and Northeast develop approximately half of their full potential talent — or 10 percentage points (0.1 point of the ICH) less than a typical child from the Southeast.
When the municipalities are observed in isolation, the situation is less unfavorable. The municipalities that were behind in 2007 tended to have a faster growth. Survey data reveals that a one percent lower ICH in 2007 correlates with a 0.5 percent higher gain in ICH between 2007 and 2019.
Source: CNN Brasil
