The IFIX had another drop and closed the month of October with 1.4% loss. The main index of real estate funds had already registered an accumulated decline in September (1.24%) and August (2.63%).
He continues to suffer from the rise in the Selic, which is currently at 7.75% per year and is expected to continue rising. Financial market analysts estimate that the base interest rate should end the year at 9.25% and reach 10.25% per year in 2022, according to the latest Focus Bulletin.
Based on this context, specialists assess that real estate funds can benefit, being allocated to the CDI or the IPCA so that the rise in interest rates and inflation generate good results.
Thinking about a still volatile scenario that requires care when investing, the CNN Brasil Business it continues to publish its real estate fund portfolio on a monthly basis, following the example of the already traditional stock portfolio, also disclosed at the beginning of each month.
In the case of FIIs, there are ten securities selected every 30 days based on the recommendations of the following brokers/analysis houses: Ativa Investimentos, Órama, XP Investimentos, Necton, Guide Investimentos and Investmind. Check out:
“Bresco’s fund has more than half of the atypical contracts, with long-term maturities, which can bring more confidence to investors. In addition, it has e-commerce players as tenants, such as Magazine Luiza and Carrefour”, says Rodrigo Sgavioli, head of allocation at XP Investimentos. The portfolio has high quality and well-located assets, mainly in the city of São Paulo, according to the analyst.
“We believe that the recent performance combined with the various management initiatives aimed at the organic growth of the portfolio generate an attractive window of opportunity for investors”, declares Guide Investimentos.
DEVA11 is a fund that can be exploited in November with high inflation, according to experts. “DEVA11 has the proposal of being an income fund, focused on fixed income investments, prioritizing pulverized CRIs in search of high returns behind a robust guarantee structure. The DEVA recommendation is based on the still accelerating inflation scenario”, assesses Gabriel Carvalho, Órama Investimentos product manager.
“In recent months we have seen the IPCA reaching record variations, which directly benefits the results of the portfolio. Along with the high spread of the portfolio, the fund should continue to deliver dividends above 1% per month”, he says.
“It is a riskier fund, because it has a portfolio focused on subdivisions and multi-property, but as most contracts are indexed by IGP-M and IPCA, at this time of inflation pass-through it will be possible to take advantage of it,” says Gabriel Teixeira, analyst at Ativa’s real estate funds.
The fund is one of the main bets of Guide and XP Investimentos for November. It follows the line of bets on receivables funds for the month.
“We like the active management strategy that the fund proposes, both for the allocation of resources in CRIs, and for the acquisition of assets in the secondary market (FII shares). The fund has a dynamic, multidisciplinary management and a long history in the real estate market that offers profitability reasonably above its main peers in the receivables sector”, says Guide.
The fund is in the portfolio of Ativa Investimentos and Nécton due to the exposure to the IPCA, which can lead to good results considering the scenario of rising inflation.
“It is a medium risk fund, with greater exposure to the inflation index and the CDI, which leads us to believe that it is a very strategic and advantageous allocation for this moment”, assesses Ativa Investimentos.
Necton and Órama claim that this fund is interesting because it is heavily allocated in CDI, with a large part of the portfolio linked to the index. “With the forecast of high interest rates, this will make this fund perform better and better, with higher dividends and the expectation that the fund’s share will appreciate in the future,” says José Renato Navikas, an analyst at Necton.
“The recommendation is based on this scenario of interest increase, considering the portfolio’s concentration in CDI+ operations and the spread above the market’s peers, considering the risk-return ratio”, says Órama Investimentos.
VISC11 is a good fund for those betting on shopping center allocation, according to Investmind.
“We have VISC11 as our top pick in the sector as it is a very well diversified fund, with 19 malls in 12 different states, with good asset quality and a great management team”, says Leonardo Alvarenga, director of the brokerage.
“The management did a brilliant job in the pandemic, reducing or exempting rents with tenants in order to avoid the increase in vacancy in their malls. In addition, the price of shares in the secondary market is greatly discounted”, he says.
Another fund very exposed to the CDI, the RBRY11, is another bet to surf the rise in interest rates, according to analysts at Órama Investimentos.
“RBRY has a diversified portfolio in 23 operations, with an average return of CDI + 4.97%, duration of 2 years and eight months and a guarantee ratio of twice the amount invested. The portfolio is composed of corporate credit (63%), a smaller portion in pulverized CRIs (27%) and the remaining 10% in CRIs. In relation to indexes, 42% of the portfolio is pegged to the CDI, 43% to inflation and 15% to the fixed rate”, says the broker.
“It is a fund focused on distributing income and dividends to its shareholders through active management that seeks to maximize its return through the acquisition, development and sale of properties leased preferably to large companies with long-term contracts”, they assess Guide experts.
“We included this fund in our portfolio because it is safer, with atypical contracts, most of which expire after 2025, which brings comfort to investors”, says Rodrigo Sgavioli, head of allocation at XP Investimentos.
“One of the biggest funds we have in logistics today. It has excellent warehouses and we believe this is the time to bet on logistics warehouses, as we have a scenario of increased online sales that has greatly benefited these locations, especially in the pandemic”, assesses José Renato Navikas, analyst at Necton.
Reference: CNN Brasil