Christmas sales are expected to decline for the second year in a row, says CNC

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Despite the normalization of the flow of consumers, the volume of sales at Christmas should suffer the second consecutive decline, according to a survey by the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), released on Monday (13).

The expectation is that the main commemorative date of Brazilian retail, which represents 22% of total sales in December, will move approximately R$ 57 billion — 2.6% lower than in 2020, taking into account inflationary variations in the country, which made the indicator jump to 10.25% in the last 12 months.

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A monitoring carried out by Google, at the end of the first week of December, shows that, for the first time, the flow of consumers in commercial establishments returned to pre-pandemic levels. The normalization of the flow is related to the advance of immunization against Covid-19 and the best epidemiological scenario in the country.

On the other hand, the study points out the economic situation of the population as an obstacle to an optimistic scenario for retail. High interest rates, high inflation and the labor market in slow recovery, even with the increase of people on the streets, make consumption difficult by the population during the Christmas period.

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“In terms of the number of units of products sold and services offered, it is possible that companies have an even greater volume than last year. But when we analyze general sales, pressured by inflation for the year, you have a situation of decline in sales. In addition, we have to consider that Brazilians have been facing a pandemic for two years and, therefore, they will be more selective when purchasing gifts. Everyone is keeping an eye on the cost-benefit and price of each product”, explains professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), Ricardo Teixeira.

Given this context, the CNC survey projects that the hyper and supermarket sector will be the highlight in terms of financial transactions in the period, representing 38.5% (R$ 22.11 billion) of the total sales volume.

Next, establishments specializing in the sale of clothing, footwear and accessories (35.3% of the total or R$ 20.28 billion) should appear.

“Historically, [o comércio de alimentos] is primarily responsible for generating revenue in the segment. The clothing sector appears next for being the most impacted by the date, presenting an average growth of 89% in sales, from November to December”, says the president of CNC, José Roberto Tadros.

CNC downlines hires for the period

Uncertainties about sales volume for Christmas also had a direct impact on the expectation of temporary vacancies for the commemorative date.

CNC reduced the projection of temporary hires for the period from 94.2 thousand to 89.4 thousand. Despite the contingent reduction, the number is still 31% higher than the hiring for the atypical year-end 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The forecast is that the largest offer of vacancies (63% of the total or 56.27 thousand) will occur in clothing, footwear and accessories stores. Then, the hyper and supermarket segments (16.63 or 19% of the total) and personal and household articles stores (11.08 thousand or 12% of the total) tend to stand out.

Regionally, São Paulo (25.61 thousand), Minas Gerais (9.63 thousand), Paraná (7.09 thousand) and Rio de Janeiro (6.63 thousand) will offer most of the vacancies.

Reference: CNN Brasil

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