Citi: New 10-year bond from Greece in the coming days – All the ‘exits’ of 2022

Of Eleftheria Kourtali

With the issuance of a new 10-year bond, Citigroup estimates that Greece will start entering the markets in 2022, a year where, as announced by ODDIH, a total of 12 billion euros are expected to be raised.

In the new year the country will make five exits which will concern mainly re-openings of securities that have already been issued, as well as a new green bond in October. In addition to securities issues, other sources of funding (such as RRF, EIB, CEB, etc.) are expected to total € 4.2 billion.

In more detail, Citi estimates that in the next few days and within January, the Greek State will issue a new 10-year bond to raise 3.5 billion euros, while a second exit will follow in March with the re-opening of the 30-year bond issued in 2021 (which expires in 2052, so it remains 30 years), to raise a further 2.5 billion euros.

Then Greece will enter the markets again in April, “opening” in January 10 to raise 2 billion euros, thus increasing the issue to 5.5 billion euros.

Most of ODDIH’s publishing activity will be completed in June, where it will proceed with the re-opening of the 5-year bond issued in March 2021, increasing its size by 2 billion euros.

Finally, the 2022 loan strategy will be completed with the first issue of a green bond by the Greek State which, according to Citi, will have a duration of 15-20 years and a size of 2 billion euros.

In general, Citi estimates that January will be a fairly “full” month of issues in the eurozone, as it predicts that the gross bond supply will reach 136 billion euros, and will probably be the highest monthly supply in 2022 – and 6 billion lower than in January 2021.

In the curve, the 10-year-old and the 15-year-old are projected to represent about 42% of the issues in January. Apart from Greece, Spain (with 10 years), Belgium (with 10 years), Austria (10 years), Ireland (10 years), Italy (15 years), France (10 years and 30 years), Germany (5 years) will enter the markets this month. , 10 years) and the Netherlands (4 years).

It predicts that for the whole of 2022 the gross bond issues in the eurozone will reach 1.13 trillion. € 47 billion lower than in 2021. Gross emissions are expected to fall further in Germany (-25 billion euros), Spain (-21 billion euros) and the Netherlands (-13 billion euros).

Italy is expected to remain the largest issuer (estimated at 298 billion euros) in 2022, followed by France (at 285 billion euros). Austria will continue to have a historically high gross supply (at 40 billion euros, similar to 2021).

All countries inside, except Finland, intend to issue green bonds in 2022, with Austria, Greece and Portugal issuing such bonds for the first time in history. Overall, Citi expects the new green bonds to reach € 73 billion in 2002, up from around € 50 billion in 2021.

Finally, according to the American bank, the main “verdicts” of the rating agencies that investors should watch this month are Spain by Moody’s, Greece by Fitch and Ireland by DBRS and Fitch. Generally, a publisher rating will be reviewed by each firm twice this year. Exceptions are Finland and France (3 times by S&P, France and Greece (3 times by Fitch), and the Netherlands (3 times by DBRS).

S&P ratings are mainly concentrated in February-April (13 reviews) and August-October (12 reviews), while for DBRS the program is “heavy” in the first quarter (11 reviews) and the third quarter (12 reviews) .

The schedule of Moody’s and Fitch is more evenly distributed throughout the year.