CNN: Scientists expect a major earthquake in Istanbul – “14,000 dead if 7.5 Richter strikes at night”

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After the killer 7.8 Richter earthquake in the southeast of Turkey, the Constantinople “afraid” of a strong impact from Enceladus. “The prospects for Istanbul are not auspicious”says Professor Celal Sengor, one of its leading geoscientists Turkey.

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“If a big earthquake doesn’t happen in 20 years in Istanbul, then we will all be very surprised”says to CNN the professor of the Technical University of Istanbul. “It’s only a possibility, but the possibility is great.”

With two main fault lines in the region – North Anatolia and East Anatolia – Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. It is a geological reality that has intensified concern about the readiness of Istanbul to earthquake.

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Historically, the fault has led to several devastating earthquakes, including a magnitude 7.6 quake that hit the nearby city Nikomedia in 1999killing over 17,000 people and displacing an estimated 500,000 others.

The earthquake could be from 7.2 to 7.8 on the Richter scale

Today, experts estimate that another earthquake on the North Anatolia fault could arrive in magnitude between 7.2 and 7.8 degrees, with disastrous consequences for Turkey’s commercial and industrial hub. The timing of such an earthquake, however, is impossible to predict.

“We can predict that an earthquake of this magnitude will happen soon, but this is the best we can do. There’s no way to predict that,” says Sengor.

A study conducted by the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute estimates that the death toll would exceed 14,000 if a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in Istanbul and it happened at night. Some experts, however, believe the toll will be much higher.

“My estimate is around 100,000. It will be a disaster,” says Sengor. “You can’t just think about the immediate impact of the shake, you also have to think about what will come after the shake. There will be looting, fires, epidemics. It’s going to be terrible.”

Current predictions by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality indicate that a 7.5-magnitude earthquake along the North Anatolia Fault could lead to the destruction of around 90,000 buildings in the city, while another 260,000 buildings may suffer significant damage. It’s a grim forecast that could leave some 4.5 million people homeless, according to city officials – that’s more than a quarter of Istanbul’s population.

Source: News Beast

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