COP26: Draft agreement focuses on limiting global warming to 1.5ºC

The first draft of the Glasgow Agreement published on Wednesday (10) includes a recognition that the world should aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which could be the first step to force countries to do so. ambitious pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions this decade.

The document is not definitive and delegates from nearly 200 countries at COP26 will negotiate the details in the coming days. The consensus of all nations is needed for the final text and, if agreed upon, the text would be the first strong recognition that 1.5 degrees Celsius is the limit the world should aim for.

The most notable line is that the bill urges signatories to submit, by the end of 2022, new emissions reduction targets for the next decade, which scientists say is crucial if the world is to have any chance of keeping warming below 2°C or closer to 1.5°C.

David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative at the World Resources Institute (WRI), called the proposal to charge new targets in 2022 as progress.

“This is crucial language because it defines the timeframe within which countries need to come up with tougher targets to align with Paris,” said Waskow, referring to the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set a global warming threshold of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Although this was agreed six years ago, the emissions plans of many nations still do not align with this target.

Waskow warned that there are “certainly governments that have opposed this”, citing Saudi Arabia and Russia. CNN had contacted these countries on the same issue on Tuesday and is awaiting further comments.

China has publicly said several times that it would oppose a change in the agreement’s express warming limit from 2°C to 1.5°C.

Typically draft COP agreements are toned down in the final text, but there is also a chance that some elements could be strengthened.

The draft includes bland language such as “encourages” and “recognises” regarding emissions cuts, so it doesn’t have the same force as a treaty like the Paris Agreement, but it does have some legal basis.

But overall, the language is based on the Paris Agreement and includes lines about the importance of accelerating the elimination of coal and other fossil fuels, although no specific date is mentioned.

WRI climate negotiations director Yamide Dagnet said it was climate-vulnerable countries that pushed for stronger language, but what they want is for the agreement to establish stronger obligations for specific nations.

They are also seeing the 2022 target as difficult to achieve without a major increase in funding.

“It will be very difficult for them to go home and say, after all their efforts, that they have to make an effort to adjust within a year,” she said.

There is an extensive section on the issue of climate finance, which is the main point of conflict in the negotiations.

A dynamic has emerged in the negotiations in which developing nations demand that rich nations honor the promise they made more than a decade ago to transfer $100 billion a year to the Global South by 2020 and start paying for “loss and damages” , which means taking financial responsibility for the impacts on these countries, recognizing the historic role of rich nations in the climate crisis.

The draft agreement indicates that the $100 billion target will likely be met by 2023, three years later than promised, though it includes several points to encourage faster money mobilization.

The language is quite fragile as it does not set previous goals for reaching funding.

“On one side of the scale, it moves forward a detailed process to accelerate climate mitigation goals, but on the other side, in finance and damages, it’s confusing and vague,” said Mohamed Adow, director of climate think tank Power Shift Africa.

“The missed deadline for the $100 billion pledge is not recognized – and this is an important issue for vulnerable countries.”

Tracy Carty, head of Oxfam’s COP26 delegation, said: “Loss and damage support cannot be left to random acts of charity. We need a robust financial system and new sources of support for countries suffering from damage and loss beyond humanitarian aid.”

“There are four days to go and everything is at stake to ensure that Glasgow is remembered for the right reasons,” she said.

What does the agreement say about the 1.5°C limit

On the 1.5 degree Celsius limit, the document “recognizes that the impacts of climate change will be much smaller with a 1.5ºC increase in temperature compared to 2ºC and resolves to seek efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5ºC , recognizing that this requires significant and effective action by all parties in this critical decade, based on the best scientific knowledge available.”

“It also recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45% by 2030 from the level of 2010 and to zero by mid-century.”