Mali saw the second military coup in a year. The soldiers overthrew the transitional government due to dissatisfaction with personnel changes. In the history of the instability of this country, it was not without the participation of Russia, which is beneficial not only from an economic, but also from a political point of view – reducing the influence of France in the region. Now rallies are being held in Bamako calling for Putin to send troops. How and why the Kremlin is destabilizing Mali and will Putin’s maneuvers affect his relationship with Macron?
TWO TURNS IN A YEAR
The first military coup in Mali took place in August 2020 – soldiers invaded the residence of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and removed him and the prime minister from power. Among the main persons of the coup there are three military men: Malik Diau, Sadio Camara and Assimi Goyta.
A military council was formed (headed by Goyta), negotiations were held with the country’s political leaders, a plan for a transitional period was created (Diau became the head of the transitional council), and a new date for the presidential and parliamentary elections was set – February 2022. Baha Ndau became interim president, Moktar Ouana became prime minister.
Since the country’s problems persisted, tensions began to rise again. In early May 2021, against this background, the interim government held talks with the opposition and agreed to a reshuffle in the Cabinet. But the authorities did not consult with Goita, and as a result, two politicians close to him lost their positions in the government. On May 24, immediately after the news of the results of the reshuffle, Goyt arrested the president and prime minister. They were forced to resign in exchange for freedom. Now all power is again in the hands of Goyta.
Among the dissatisfied with the reshuffle was the coalition of opposition parties M5 RFP, with which Ndau was negotiating. They also got nothing. Now they say they have been asked to nominate a candidate for prime minister.
HOW AND WHY RUSSIA HELPS JUNTA
The Russian Federation began to be active in Mali even before the first coup. During the anti-government protests in Bamako in the summer of 2020, Russian flags and posters appeared with gratitude for “solidarity” from the Russian Federation. And two conspirators, Malik Diau and Sadio Camara, returned to the country a week before the coup – they were in Moscow for almost a year in training.
“It is these officers-conspirators connected with Russia that surround Goyta, who for the second time led the country as a result of the” coup d’etat “. They have pronounced anti-French views and are guided by Moscow,” Candidate of Political Science, Lecturer at the Institute of International Relations, KNU named after Shevchenko Alexander Mishin.
The United States also trained the Malian military, in particular those who took part in the coup. For example, Goyta trained with the Americans. But there is a difference: the US refused to cooperate with Mali and disowned the putschists after the first coup; Russia acted differently, supporting the junta. For example, the Russian ambassador almost immediately met with the conspirators.
Now the support of the Malian junta from Russia is mainly of a political nature, Mishin believes: “The Russian Federation sent a special envoy to Bamako to resolve the crisis, presenting itself as a peacemaker.” Also, the Russian Federation can influence the position of the UN Security Council – they condemned the re-coup, but instead of sanctions, they managed through the mediation of the Economic Community of West African Countries (ECOWAS).
Russia will block attempts by the UN Security Council to impose sanctions against a country where another relapse of anti-democratic manifestations has occurred, – says Alexander Mishin, candidate of political sciences.
At the same time, Russia has friends in the political arena and among civilians. For example, the leader of the communist party African Unity for Democracy and Independence Umar Mariko (a member of the opposition coalition M5 FRP, which is now due to nominate its candidate for the post of prime minister). In 2018, he visited the Russian-occupied part of Donbass and promised to open a representative office of pro-Russian militants in Mali if he becomes president (at that time he was a candidate for the post of head of state).
The Russian Federation pursues two goals in this country: economic and political. “Russian economic interests have deep roots and are associated with Soviet times, when a number of infrastructure projects were being implemented there,” Mishin says, adding that now Russian business is working in the field of gold mining, but the military-industrial complex remains the most important part of bilateral relations. – “The Armed Forces of Mali are mainly armed with Soviet and Russian small arms, armored vehicles, artillery and aviation.” For example, the Russian Ministry of Defense signed a cooperation agreement with the Malian military back in 2019.
Since the military junta is now in power, it depends on the supply of weapons from the Russian Federation, says Mishin
The political goal of Russia in destabilizing Mali is to influence other countries that have interests there (Turkey, China, France). And in a broader context – the continuation of the proxy conflict with France over Africa. “Russia is trying to gain a foothold in the troubled countries of the African Sahel, which has traditionally been part of the French zone of influence,” Mishin says, citing as an example the Kremlin’s activity in the CAR, Libya, Chad and Sudan. – “Niger, Burkina Faso and Mauritania are also under the gun of the Russian Federation – this worries France very much.”
The chaos of Mali has the most negative effect on France, the expert says, since it is conducting a counter-terrorist operation there against jihadists: “Violation of the governance of the country leads to the activation of the forces of Islamic fundamentalists.”
Until August 2020, Paris had an impact on the country thanks to a key ally – President Ibrahim Boubacar Keite. His overthrow was a “diplomatic nightmare” for France. And President Ndau, ousted in May 2021, presented the updated composition of the Cabinet of Ministers immediately after returning from Paris. Russians and anti-French politicians could take this as a signal of Paris’ attempts to restore diplomatic positions in the country. Therefore, the current coup can carry both a local (the military wanted to retain power) and a geopolitical dimension (now the government can be formed by a prime minister appointed by the anti-French political force).
Mali: Demonstration for the less lively of a hundred people this morning in Bamako, who wants the intervention of Russia and asks for the departure of Barkhane.
The reunification took place in front of the Russian Embassy. pic.twitter.com/gCDQEN4YxC
– Paul Lorgerie (@PLorger) May 27, 2021
Also, under the Russian embassy in Bamako, rallies have been held for two days in a row, at which demonstrators with Russian flags in their hands demand “Russian military intervention”, the end of the French operation and statements The Kremlin to support the coup. The Russian Embassy in Bamako has so far limited itself to only stating that after the arrest of the country’s top leadership, everything is calm in the capital.
There is also a significant aspect of the actualization of the Malian crisis against the background of the incident with the Ryanair aircraft in Belarus, against which the pressure of sanctions is growing, – Mishin said.
“It cannot be ruled out that the Russians need Mali to trade with the French on the Belarusian issue,” he says. The coup in Mali in August 2020 also coincided with the start of protests in Belarus over election rigging by the Lukashenka regime.
At the same time, Mishin clarifies that direct relations between Putin and Macron are influenced not only by geopolitics, but also by the economy. And French companies “prefer to close their eyes to political aspects for the sake of profit on the Russian market.”
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