C’s an ad that hit the UK like a bomb: the UK variant of Covid-19 is not only more contagious, but could also be more deadly. The data which conclude with a lethality of the “English variant” 30 to 40% higher compared to the traditional virus are limited, temper the scientists. At the same time, concern is growing in the dozens of countries where the 50 to 70% more transmissible variant has now been detected.
Two separate studies from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College London linked data of positive cases detected out of hospital with mortality data. Using slightly different methods, they both estimate the additional risk of dying from the new variant to be around 30%. Other studies from the University of Exeter and the public health agency Public Health England have found even higher risks.
A “realistic possibility”
Based on these results submitted to it, NERVTAG, the group that advises the UK government on respiratory viruses, indicated that there was a “realistic possibility” that infection with this variant was associated with a higher risk of mortality. The greater contagiousness of this variant, called B.1.1.7 or VOC 202012/01, had already caused concern across the world as health systems are already under strain: the more the number of infected people is. Importantly, the more the number of patients suffering from severe forms increases, as does the number of deaths. “Unfortunately, it seems that this virus is both”, more contagious and perhaps more deadly, summed up Monday at a press conference John Edmunds, of the LSHTM. “The situation, alas, is really getting worse,” he added.
There are uncertainties in the data, however, according to researchers who hope things will be clearer in a few weeks. Even though the results are “statistically significant,” the studies were based on positive cases outside the hospital. However, most of the patients who subsequently died tested positive only when they arrived at the hospital, noted John Edmunds. And hospital data is not yet available. According to NERVTAG, this gap could explain why studies have not found an increased risk of hospitalization in people infected with the new variant, which seems to contradict a greater severity of the disease. The searches covered only 8% of total deaths over the period analyzed and the results may “not be representative of the entire population,” the group also noted.
The key role of the Spike protein
Although more studies are needed, the researchers hypothesize that the greater lethality is linked to the same mutations as the greater transmissibility. In particular, a mutation in the spicule or spike protein of the virus, this point on its surface which allows it to attach to the ACE2 receptor of human cells to penetrate them, plays a key role in viral infection. . “If it is able to spread more quickly through the lungs in this way, it could accelerate the progression of disease and inflammation, which progresses faster than the body can cope with,” explained Peter Horby, head of NERVTAG and specialist in emerging infectious diseases at the University of Oxford. “The virus may not have evolved to become more deadly as such, but it could have evolved to develop faster or better”, for his part indicates to Agence France-Presse Bjorn Meyer, virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris.
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