Demand for C gasoline and hydrous ethanol is expected to grow gradually in Brazil in the short term, until the end of the year, due to tax exemptions and price reductions, according to the latest Latin American Oil Market Forecast, by S&P Global Commodity Insights. .
Despite the recovery that has already been registered, demand for fuels from the so-called Otto Cycle has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels, according to the advance survey to Reuters, showing a reduction of 35,000 barrels in the consumption of gasoline equivalent per day between January and June in compared to the same period in 2019, despite a gain of 30,000 compared to 2021.
The report projects demand for gasoline/hydrous ethanol in the third quarter to be up 20,000 barrels per day from the same period last year, but still 5,000 barrels lower than the same period in 2019.
“The recovery in demand this year has been slowed down by a number of factors: very strong benchmark gasoline prices, high inflation, modest economic growth, persistently high unemployment rates…” said the manager of oil price analysis and regional outlook. from S&P Global Commodity Insights, Lenny Rodriguez.
He recalled that the prices of gasoline and ethanol only retreated recently with the tax measures and a reduction in the value of oil compared to the highs of the year, a favorable factor for consumption.
It also pondered that there has been “some notable progress in recent months” in the unemployment rate, but that possibly some changes in consumer behavior – for example, a part of the workforce may have switched fully or partially to a remote work scheme – help to keep demand for ethanol and gasoline below pre-pandemic levels.
Diesel
For diesel, the consultancy assesses that prices should remain strong in the global market until the end of the year, in line with the assessment made by Petrobras last month.
“Uncertainty over Russian diesel supplies to Europe continues to support, as does low oil product inventories in all major trading centers such as the US and Singapore,” he said.
Since July, Petrobras has already reduced the price of gasoline at refineries three times, and that of diesel, twice, after declines in the price of oil and derivatives on the international market.
But this week oil prices soared, returning to operations above $100 a barrel, with the sector focusing on indications that OPEC+ may cut output in the event of a nuclear deal with Iran that would bring Iranian oil to market. .
Source: CNN Brasil
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