High inflation around the world, countries advancing in cycles of high interest , war. It may not seem like it, but even with an adverse scenario, analysts point out that people interested in investing outside Brazil can find good opportunities.
O investment in other regions or countries, it takes into account a series of elements, such as how favorable the current economic moment is for a given country, the composition of companies on its stock exchange, the ease of investing and the risks associated with the process.
Experts say to CNN Brasil Business that investing abroad is important not only at the present time, but in anyone, since it is a tool for diversification and protection, especially in the bad phases in the Brazilian market.
Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to some precautions to ensure that, while good opportunities are not being missed, the investor has selectivity to circumvent bad deals, whether in the United States, China, India or in another country.
In a report published in April of this year, XP Investimentos sought to classify how it currently sees the attractiveness of some regions of the globe.
Jennie Li, Marketing Strategist actions of the company and one of the authors of the study, says that the view on these markets has changed little since then.
“From January to the beginning of April of this year, we had a scenario to think about investments abroad, and today we have another one. Europe, for example, started the year well, recovering from the pandemic and benefiting from the rise in commodities, but everything changed with the war,” he says.
For XP strategists, the most attractive markets at the moment are Brazil and other emerging countries. For the United States, Europe, Japan and China, the view is neutral, that is, there is no recommendation to invest or to withdraw investments.
She notes that international investments involve a lot of global risks at the moment, although it is positive to have a portfolio with exposure abroad, which makes it even more important to know how to make a good allocation of resources.
in the case of China the main point of attention for Li is the worsening of economic indicators and the effects of recent lockdowns in economic centers like Shanghai, indicating a slowdown in the economy, negative for the stock market.
already the Europe faces more pressing inflation problems, with a weak economy and a less aggressive central bank in fighting inflationary pressures. The biggest risk, however, is the high exposure to war on the mainland, between Ukraine and Russia.
You United States have also become less attractive this year due to the process of raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation in 40 years, and part of the market fears a recession in 2023, which harms the assets in the country’s stock exchanges, which have entered a downward trend.
And there is still the case of Japan one of the largest economies in the world, but with “few catalysts” and stagnant, according to Li, which requires a very active management of investments to have good returns.
The environment is a little more positive in markets such as Latin America and in the rest of Asia especially in traditional exporters of commodities . As the prices of these products have soared, and companies in the sector usually have a strong presence on the stock market, investing in these markets helps to surf the wave of profits in this scenario.
Li points out that this thesis “began to be questioned in April because of the lockdowns in China, with prices rising less. Even so, they are positive markets, commodity prices are still very high, and they are markets that are less sensitive to high interest rates because they are less dependent on technology companies.
Despite these elements, she believes that the safest foreign investments are still usually in the United States, in dollars and in the country’s Treasury bonds, the so-called Treasuries . This is what has happened in recent months, with the migration of capital from markets seen as riskier or that could be harmed by high interest rates to US fixed income.
“Other countries, like Brazil, have higher interest rates, so the yield is higher, the problem is that emerging countries always have more risks, and developed countries are safer, but with lower yields”, he says.
Adeodatto Neto, founding partner of Eleven Financial Research, sees the US market as the simplest, with the fastest and most direct access for investors, where it is possible to find many assets and even invest in other regions of the world from of stock indices.
“It is a more mature, developed market, with more direct tools. Even with the current situation, it’s worth it, you can’t stop buying just because it’s going down, and when assets are going down, it’s a good opportunity to buy,” he says.
He points out, however, that the North American market is much larger than the Brazilian market, and more unknown, so it is important to study even more before investing. “It’s like walking into a gigantic supermarket not knowing what you want to buy. Having intelligence, strategy support, analysis, a vision to guide this investor, all of this is fundamental”.
In his view, the European market is going through a “quite difficult” moment, and it is more complex due to issues involving the euro zone, especially considering the bond market.
Considering the exchanges in the region, he considers that there are companies that are fundamental for some sectors worldwide, with “a lot of good things and good assets”, and that it is possible to find good opportunities, but with care.
The analysis of Europe as a whole, however, is more difficult to do for Asia, which ends up being divided due to the heterogeneity of countries.
“China is still seen as controversial because of credibility, public interference, it’s more complex for average investors. Japan is more mature, but it’s a more lethargic market. India already has access to good companies through the US market”, she assesses.
Neto says that “many things can be used on the continent, but if the investor is not more sophisticated, does not have a large wealth, it is difficult to go through these regions”.
For the Eleven partner, sectoral diversification in investments is as important as geographic diversification, and it is also necessary to look at the good opportunities within each sector, composed of “extraordinary and bad” companies.
“Periods of uncertainty generate selectivity processes, we will see a matter of survival, companies that come out of this cycle stronger, and this will happen in each sector”, he ponders.
He believes that the trend of investment abroad by Brazilians is strong, has gained more space and is an irreversible path. “The more financial education, access, instruments the investor has, the more he searches. Over the next few years, decades, this will only grow.”
Li, from XP, says that, thinking about sectors, high-growth companies such as technology which tend to be more indebted and vulnerable to interest, and small caps with a lower market value, are usually the ones that suffer the most in times like the current one, with high interest rates.
She assesses that the sectors with the most favorable environment at the moment are those of growth, linked to commodities, or of high quality, whose growth is less tied to the performance of the economy.
There are also the so-called defensive sectors in relation to inflation such as electricity companies, which tend to have high demand even with a bad inflation scenario.
At the same time, the downturn in several sectors around the world ends up bringing opportunities. “There are companies that were expensive, especially in the United States, which had a readjustment with drops and are now more attractive, but you have to choose carefully, not everything that has fallen you have to buy now, because it can fall more”.
Source: CNN Brasil