According to the latest Reuters poll of 40 economists, the European Central Bank (ECB) could embark on its interest rate tightening cycle before 2024, when a rise is planned.
“The consensus of the survey conducted from October 18 to 21 indicated that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023, but almost 90% of the economists who answered an additional question, 35 of 40, said that there is a risk that arrive earlier than expected. “
“Survey moderators showed the ECB deposit rate to be -0.50% and the refinance rate unchanged at zero until the end of 2023. A small sample observed over more than two years showed the rate of deposit at -0.30% and the REFI rate at zero by the end of 2024. “
“Three-quarters of the economists who held this view going forward, exactly 18 out of 24, expect at least a rate hike in 2024.”
“When asked about increased concern about the euro zone economy in the coming year, nearly two-thirds of those surveyed, or 27 out of 42, said they expected a larger than expected slowdown in economic growth. The rest said inflation was persistently high. “