End of red flag explains deceleration of inflation preview, says economist

The economist and professor at FGV, Mauro Rochlin, believes that there was “a half surprise” with the deceleration of April’s inflation numbers.

The IBGE released the “prior official inflation”, the IPCA-15 (Amplified National Consumer Price Index-15). The rate decelerated to 0.58% in May compared to April.

“Some inflationary indicators, such as the IGP-M, came with much lower numbers, the first factor responsible for this is the end of the red flag in electricity billing. The impact is big,” he explained, in an interview with CNN Radio.

According to him, analysts should point out the drop as one-off, but he drew attention to the fact that foodstuffs also recorded better numbers.

“The expectation is for improvement in the next three months, because of the harvest that will hit the market from May and June. If we look at the historical inflation series, June and August are marked by lower food inflation,” he said.

In this way, Rochlin believes that “from now on, we can see a drop in numbers and close the year with single-digit inflation.”

Davos

Mauro Rochlin assessed that the World Economic Forum, which takes place in Davos, Switzerland, should not bring a joint decision of nations regarding high inflation around the world.

“There are no instruments to think about a coordinated action of the main leaders with regard to joint actions, so countries face inflationary processes independently of each other, each has its own way of dealing with the problem, conducts monetary and interest policy at a different rate. specific way,” he added.

He pondered: “We cannot say that Davos can come up with a solution that implies international coordination and joint action, what we can have are ideas that can become hegemonic, proposals that can gain relevance, but I find it difficult to come out with a concrete decision on the part of of countries”.