Recep Tayyip Erdogan counts not only “spoils” from the NATO summit, hosted in Madrid, but also what else he has collected, mainly the absolute tolerance of his partners in the Alliance, for his attitude and behavior, according to filenews.com. The President of the occupying power now knows that he can proceed with other plans as well, as what preceded the last NATO meeting and what took place during it, showed that in order to satisfy his claims the… universe is mobilized.
In order to lift his veto so that the process of joining Sweden and Finland in the Alliance can begin, not only these two countries have made concessions, but also the United States, with the F-16s, as indirectly also the E.U. . The participation of the occupying power in the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) of the E.U. cannot be downgraded, especially from Athens and Nicosia. To be precise, the issue that is raised concerns its participation in military mobility (includes, among other things, the possibility of rapid movement of military forces and military material within the Union and beyond it). Based on what is happening, two member states of the Union in order to join NATO, will second Ankara in relation to PESCO. The Republic of Cyprus has the right of veto, but as is known, it has never used this tool. If he does, he will possibly find himself facing these two states, possibly also facing others, who ardently want to satisfy Turkey (and NATO).
As far as the Americans are concerned, it seems that the crisis with the Turkish veto rewarmed American-Turkish relations, even though this was evident even before the war in Ukraine. Biden received and met Erdoğan in Madrid, despite the … thriller character given to the issue and as can be deduced from the public positions on both sides, there were commitments from the American side. As for the sale of F-16 fighters, although there is the congressional hurdle, which is not easy to overcome as they have to deal with Senator Menendez there first.
What do these developments mean for Greece and Cyprus? Madrid has confirmed Ankara’s upgraded role. He has confirmed that Erdogan remains the pampered child of the West, Europeans and Americans. In relation to the Cyprus issue, Ankara knows that it has the potential to promote its claims, taking advantage of the climate that has formed. At this stage, Nicosia does not have a plan, it repeats the known generalities while the Turkish side marches on… other avenues. However, in all likelihood, any attempt will be made after the Turkish elections. In case of mobility, however, Erdogan showed that he has a way, extortionately and willfully, to satisfy himself. It is also obvious that the Cyprus issue is not being dealt with in its known narrow sense, but on a different basis, taking into account the new geopolitical facts and the ongoing redistribution of power. In the big picture is also natural gas, which is expected to be high on the agenda of the discussions, with Ankara wanting a role, through cooperation with countries in the region, except Cyprus, as well as with the states from which they come the companies licensed in the Cypriot EEZ.
With everything that we are watching and that is taking place both in the diplomatic field, in the background and in the foreground, but also in the military field (Ukraine, Syria, N. Iraq), it seems that Ankara considers that it can proceed with the implementation of its policies. With this given, we will go ahead and spend the summer. How “warm” it will be will depend on Erdoğan’s moods, decisions.