Categories: Markets

EUR/USD falls on Wall Street’s end-of-month flows

  • EUR/USD bears enter Wall Street homestretch.
  • US stocks plunge ahead of this week’s earnings and major calendar events such as the ECB, Fed and US NFP.

The EUR/USD has been forced back as shares fall to new session lows, led by the Nasdaq, the technology market, which has lost more than 1% on Monday. At time of writing, EUR/USD is down around 0.2% and has fallen from a recent high of 1.0913 to a recent low of 1.0839.

A big week is ahead and markets are squaring off ahead of big events like the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and US Nonfarm Payrolls showdown and grand finale. First of all, the markets foresee a rise of 25 basis points from the Federal Reserve, but they are also considering the possibility that the reference rate will reach a maximum of 4.93% in June, compared to the current 4.33%. There are also voices that advocate that the central bank reduce it to 4.52% in December. However, some analysts believe that the market is wrong, considering how tight the labor market is. Some Fed officials have resisted market calls for a turnaround, saying they will have to keep rates in tight territory for a while to reduce inflation.

The ECB will be key

As for the ECB, the markets have been short on comment from ECB officials of late and there hasn’t been much data to go by either. Instead, the sentiment is for a 50 basis point rise followed by hawkish comments from Governor Christine Lagarde. There is room for things to get interesting during the press conference,” say the TD Securities analysts, who add that “we believe that Lagarde will be tougher than expected and will repeat her previous forecast of further increases of 50 basis points in March and May”.

Danske Bank analysts ultimately see the ECB’s terminal rate at 3.25% in May, but say risks remain to the upside. They also note that preliminary HICP figures for January will be released just before Wednesday’s meeting. We expect a rebound both broadly (9.6% vs. 9.2%) and underlying (5.4% vs. 5.2%).”

The grand finale will come with Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls, for which consensus calls for an increase of 185,000 jobs from 223,000 in December, according to analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. Overall, the market employment remains tight and it is difficult to see how wage pressures can fall much further given this rigidity,” the analysts argued.


Last price today 1.0846
daily change today -0.0019
today’s daily variation -0.17
today’s daily opening 1.0865
daily SMA20 1,077
daily SMA50 1.0624
daily SMA100 1.0277
daily SMA200 1.0312
previous daily high 1.09
previous daily low 1.0838
Previous Weekly High 1,093
previous weekly low 1.0835
Previous Monthly High 1.0736
Previous monthly minimum 1.0393
Fibonacci daily 38.2 1.0862
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 1.0877
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0835
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0805
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0773
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0898
Daily Pivot Point R2 1,093
Daily Pivot Point R3 1,096

Source: Fx Street

Published by

Recent Posts

Former Argentine President Mauricio Macri says he will not run for election

The former president of Argentina, Mauricio Macri, announced in a video released this Sunday (26)…

10 mins ago

Are Harry Styles and Emily Ratajkowski together?

hHarry Styles and Emily Ratajkowski they are together? One was enough kiss between the two…

58 mins ago

Putin: Not forming a military alliance with China

Clear message that Russia and China they do not form a military alliance sent o…

2 hours ago

Drake cancels show at Lollapalooza hours before performance; Skrillex takes the place

Canadian singer Drake has decided to cancel his performance on Sunday night (26) at the…

2 hours ago

Analysis: With Tactical Nuclear Weapons Plan in Belarus, Putin Is Scaring the World to Distract Its Problems

Vladimir Putin says he plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, the neighboring ally…

3 hours ago

Pope Francis expands sexual abuse law to include lay Church leaders

Pope Francis has updated a 2019 church law governing clerical sexual abuse and extended it…

3 hours ago