- EUR / USD is back slightly on Thursday but remains above 1.2150.
- Ahead: European Central Bank decision and US inflation data
The dollar is rising modestly in the market, dragging EUR / USD lower. The price fell to 1.2152, the lowest level since Monday and then bounced back to the 1.2170 area, where it is trading ahead of major events.
EUR / USD centered on the ECB and US CPI.
EUR / USD continues to move without a clear direction, with support above 1.2150 and to the upside, unable to stabilize above 1.2200. This scenario is present before the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB). The central bank will issue a statement at 11:45 GMT and then at 12:30 GMT will be Lagarde’s press conference.
It is expected that the The ECB remains unchanged when it comes to interest rates, although it could give some news on the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP).
When Lagarde’s conference begins, the US will publish the May Retail Inflation Report and the weekly Unemployment Benefit Claims report. The inflation data may have a broad impact on the market and on expectations about Fed policy.
Despite these imminent risks, TD Securities analysts believe that the dollar has some stability and consolidation ahead. “We think that the last rise in the dollar is a consequence of positional adjustments, rather than the beginning of a new uptrend. While we do not expect a clear direction from the ECB, our forecast is for another bullish surprise in Thursday’s CPI, which may trigger a challenge for the Fed on cutting (in the buy program) and discounting prices from a hike. in interest rates. Tactical positioning and high-frequency fair value models show that the dollar’s shorting is well populated again, ”analysts said.
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