- The EUR / USD flirts with the 200-day SMA around 1.1880.
- The ECB will publish the minutes of its March meeting.
- Powell’s speech and initial US jobless claims stand out on the economic calendar today.
The common currency recovers the smile and motivates the EUR / USD pair to stay close to the zone of recent highs near the 1.1900 level during the European session on Thursday.
EUR / USD focuses attention on the ECB, data and Powell
Following Wednesday’s move to fresh 2-week highs above the 1.19 round level, EUR / USD failed to sustain bullish momentum and closed the session slightly negative.
However, the pair resumed its upward movement in the second half of the week and continues to pivot around the critical 200-day SMA at the 1.1880 zone amid softer sentiment around the dollar and lower US yields.
With regard to the euro data, today the February producer prices and the ECB minutes from their March meeting.
Across the Atlantic, weekly jobless claims will be released today, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s participation in a panel discussion on “The Global Economy.”
What can we expect around the EUR?
EUR / USD finally managed to break above the 1.19 level, although the move lost some strength soon after. However, the short-term outlook appears to have improved and it would not be surprising to see a sustainable advance above 1.1900 in the next few days. The pair’s recovery came along with a new pessimistic sentiment around the dollar and growing hopes for a sustained recovery in the Old Continent now that the launch of the vaccine appears to have gained some momentum.
Key events in the eurozone this week: Minutes of the ECB (Thursday).
Eminent Background Issues: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the rebound in inflation figures. Vaccine launch progress. Likely political turmoil around the EU Recovery Fund.
EUR / USD levels
At the time of writing, the EUR / USD pair is gaining 0.12% on the day, trading at 1.1876. The next resistance is at 1.1914 (April 7 high), followed by 1.1989 (March 11 high) and 1.2000 (psychological level). On the downside, a break below 1.1704 (March 31 low) would target 1.1602 (November 4 low) en route to 1.1570 (2008-2021 support line).
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