EUR/USD staggers while the lack of clarity on Trump’s tariffs keeps USD down

• EUR/USD ranges around 1,1350 while investors evaluate clarity on Trump’s tariff policy.
• The Fed Waller supports interest rate cuts due to the growing recession risks in the US.
• It is widely anticipated that the ECB cuts the interest rates at 25 basic points on Thursday.

The EUR/USD shows a lateral trend about 1,1350 during the European negotiation hours on Tuesday after a strong increase in the last days of negotiation. The main currency pair is consolidated while the US dollar (USD) earns a temporary respite after staying under pressure for more than a week. He US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six main currencies, finds support about a new minimum of three years about 99.00, registered on Friday.

However, investors prepare for more weakness in the US dollar since the currency is losing its safe refuge status due to constantly change tariff holders by President of the United States (USA) Donald Trump since last week.

After declaring a 90 -day pause in the execution of reciprocal tariffs on all its commercial partners, except China, President Trump plans to announce a temporary suspension of cars tariffs. This would give time to national automobile manufacturers to establish house -made facilities.

In addition, the increase in fears to an economic deceleration due to Trump’s economic policies has also weighed over the US dollar and has strengthened the yields of US Treasury bonds historically, the yields of assets that generate interest increase drastically as the financial market participants add the risk premium in times of economic uncertainty. The 10 -year treasure bond yields have increased more than 13% in the last six negotiation sessions.

The increase in bond yields and the increase in fears to an economic deceleration is expected to endanger the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FED). On Monday, the governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, warned that the “New tariff policy” is one of the “greatest clashes” that affect the US economy in decades. Waller gave more weight to latent fears of an economic recession about accelerated inflation expectations and supported the relief of monetary policy. He anticipated that the “effects of tariffs on the increase in inflation” will be “of short duration”.

What moves the market today: the EUR/USD remains lateral before the ECB’s monetary policy

• The lateral movement in the EUR/USD is also driven by a cautious tendency in the euro (EUR) before the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be announced on Thursday. It is almost certain that the ECB cuts its deposit rate in 25 basic points (PBS) to 2.25%. This would be the sixth cut of consecutive interest rates by the ECB.
• Investors will pay special attention to the press conference of the BCE president, Christine Lagarde, to obtain clues about the possible monetary policy perspectives for the rest of the year and how the new commercial policies of President Trump will shape the eurozone economy.
• A series of ECB officials have commented that the inflation promoted by Trump’s tariffs will not be persistent and will entail significant economic risks. An increase in Trump -driven inflation would be compensated by China by flooding the eurozone with its products. The growing commercial war between the US and China would force the latter to look for other economies to sell their assets. The tariff war between the US and China intensified after the Asian giant responded to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs increasing tariffs on imports from America.
• On the global front, commercial relations between the US are expected to become healthy. The US National Economic Council (NEC), Kevin Hassett, said in an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday that they are achieving “enormous advances” in tariff conversations with the European Union (EU).
• Meanwhile, the ZEW survey of the Eurozone and Germany – economic feeling for April has been significantly weak. The feeling data of the Eurozone falls to -18.5 from estimates of +14.2 and the previous publication of 39.8. The Zew survey in Germany – Economic feeling has resulted in -14 in April since 51.6 in March, far exceeding the estimate of the 9.3 market. The feeling of institutional investors has been significantly affected by the increase in global commercial tensions. Barclay analysts anticipate an economic recession in the Eurozone in the second half of 2025 despite a partial pause of 90 days in reciprocal tariffs by President Trump. Washington announced 20% reciprocal tariffs on EU imports.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD is consolidated around 1,1350

The EUR/USD ranges around 1,1350 in the European session on Tuesday. The general currency pair of currency pair is strongly bullish since all long -term exponential mobile socks (EMAS) have an ascending slope.

The 14 -day relative force index (RSI) jumps above 70.00, indicating a strong bullish impulse.

Looking up, the psychological resistance of 1,1500 will be an important resistance to the torque. On the contrary, the minimum of April 11, 1,1192 will be the key support for the euros of the euro.