The Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban) announced this Monday (2) that it expects a growth of 8.2% in 2023 in financing granted by the country’s banking system, a slight decrease compared to the previous projection released in November of 8.4 %.
According to the federation of banks, the reduction in the projection is a result of the expectation of lower growth of the portfolio with free resources, from 10% to 8.6%. The expectation for the portfolio with earmarked resources rose from 6.1% to 7.7%.
For 2022, the entity “captured a new improvement in the projected growth of the total portfolio, rising from 14.1% (November) to 14.8%”, according to a press release. The entity’s survey was carried out between December 13 and 20, with 20 banks.
“This improvement stems mainly from the positive surprises with the most recent figures for the economy, especially in lines of credit with earmarked resources, such as public programs,” said the entity.
The survey also shows a worsening of expectations for defaults on the free portfolio. For 2022, the projection rose from 4.3% (in November) to 4.4%, while for 2023 it increased from 4.4% to 4.7%. In October, default in this portfolio was 4.2%.
In addition to credit, the Febraban survey indicated that 75% of participants expect the Central Bank to start lowering interest rates only from the third quarter of this year, at meetings in August or September. In the previous survey, most analysts (60%) pointed out that this would occur in the second quarter, said the entity. Still 20% of the participants indicate that the Selic should start to fall only in the last three months of this year, something not pointed out in the previous survey.
“For most of those interviewed, the processing of the Transition PEC resulted in a change both in the beginning of monetary easing and in an increase in the terminal Selic rate in 2023. Only 25% stated that they did not change their projections for the Selic rate”, said the director of economics, prudential regulation and risks at Febraban, Rubens Sardenberg.
According to the survey by the association of banks, the median of the projections began to indicate that the Selic rate would remain stable at 13.75% per year until June and only from August onwards would the easing of monetary policy begin.
Source: CNN Brasil
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