Firmer USD / TRY Testing Weekly Highs Above 8.0000

  • USD / TRY extends the rally above 8.00.
  • The lira remains on the defensive as the sell bias accelerates.
  • Turkey’s manufacturing confidence fell to 103.9 this month.

The Turkish lira extends lower for another session on Tuesday and raises to USD/TRY back to the area above the 8.00 psychological level, only to regress later.

USD / TRY remains around 7.50

USD / TRY is advancing for the third consecutive session after Tuesday’s trend reversal as the Turkish currency continues to make gains following the recent rally. On the latter, it is worth remembering that the lira gained around 12% from all-time lows against the dollar on November 6 to last week’s highs of around 7.50.

However, market participants appear to be using the gains from those lira to resume their purchases of US dollars, putting the pair under additional upward pressure. Meanwhile, investors are expected to closely follow developments in the country following the latest orthodox rise by the central bank (CBRT) and President Erdogan’s promise to usher Turkey into an era of financial stability, growth and foreign investment.

On the national agenda, Turkey’s manufacturing confidence fell to 103.9 in November (from 108.1) and capacity utilization rose to 75.8% (from 75.4). Later in the week, the economic sentiment indicator will be released, as well as the CBRT Minutes.

Key levels

At the moment, the pair is up 1.02% to 7.9537 and faces the next hurdle at 8.0423 (weekly high on Nov 24) followed by 8.5777 (all-time high on Nov 6) and finally 9.0000 (psychological hurdle). On the downside, a dip below 7.5119 (monthly low on Nov 20) would expose 7.3970 (horizontal support line from the top of August) and then 7.1063 (200-day SMA).

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