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France: Macron ‘holds’ poll lead – Which program will he implement if elected

LAST UPDATE: 12.15

Macron’s lead over Le Pen drops in a poll a week before the vote.

Emanuel Macron is set to win the first round of France’s presidential election on April 10, but his lead over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen continues to decline, according to a poll released Sunday, according to Bloomberg.

Support for Macron stood at 27%, up from 29.5% in a similar survey two weeks earlier. Lepen came in second with 22%, up 3.5 points, according to an Ifop poll into the Journal du Dimanche.

Macron would win Le Pen 53% vs. 47% in an election, the poll showed, down from 58% vs. 42% two weeks earlier.

The second round of voting, between the first two votes in the first round, will take place on April 24.

The poll also showed that:

-The far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenson would take third place in the first round with a percentage of 15%, increased by 2 points.
-The far right expert Eric Zemour would have 10.5%, reduced by 1.5 points.
-Republican Valerie Pecresse would have 9%, reduced by 2 points.
Ifop conducted an online survey of 1,405 adults from March 31 to April 1. The margin of error was between 1.4 and 3.1 points.

Macron on track for another attempt to reshape the French economy

The independent centrist, according to Bloomberg, won over the French in 2017 with his promises to improve the business environment with tax cuts and encourage work with changes in labor laws and welfare. But after a storm of action in the first year of his presidency, this reform effort was slowed down by the Yellow Vest movement and stopped by the coronavirus pandemic.

Polls predict that after his victory in the first round on April 10, Macron will face and most likely defeat the nationalist candidate Marin Le Pen in the second round on April 24. If they are right, then these are the basic policies that will shape France for the next five years – bearing in mind that the war in Ukraine casts a shadow over the expediency of some of its plans.

Fiscal policy

The French leader says he will continue to cut tax rates to boost economic activity and lighten the tax burden on labor.

For businesses, it plans further reductions in production levies and lower burdens for the self-employed. For households, it commits to abolishing the television license fee and raising the tax-free ceiling on inheritance.

The cuts will cost the state a total of 15 billion euros when fully implemented.

Expenses

Macron plans to allocate 10 billion euros for the green transition, which will include the renovation of buildings, subsidies for electric vehicles and the planting of trees. Education and health are also in line to receive a boost from public investment.

Combined with the tax cuts, the total cost of Macron’s program will reach 50 billion euros a year by the end of his five-year term in 2027.

Financially

To pay the bill, Macron says he has lined up the corresponding amount from the cost savings. In the manifesto, there are a few details about specific measures under the general headings of state modernization, reduction of operating costs and limitation of local authorities’ expenditure.

Overall, Macron’s team says the budget deficit will continue to fall below 3% of economic output by 2027, according to his current government. The plan is based on optimistic assumptions about growth and the impact of reforms on the country’s long-term development potential.

Social politics

Macron insists on economic policy during his first term: make the job pay off. Some measures could prove to be popular, such as tripling the tax-free bonus introduced during the Yellow Vest protests, guaranteeing a one-size-fits-all childcare solution, strengthening profit-sharing mechanisms or introducing greater benefits. holidays.

In addition to these “carrots” to make work more attractive, there are also “sticks” that can prove to be a red flag for the French trade unions. Macron says he will add conditions to the minimum welfare level and differentiate the generosity of unemployment insurance according to the strength of the labor market.

According to the manifesto, the changes will lead to unemployment at 5% – a level that has been seen since the late 1970s.

Health

Macron wants to boost drug production in France after dealing with shortages during the Covid crisis, and organize a conference on how to ensure there are no “medical deserts”, areas without doctors.

To enhance the quality of life of the elderly, it wants to recruit retirees to devote their time to various fields, from helping children with homework to entrepreneurial counseling. It also pledges to set aside 1,100 euros a month as a threshold for the pensions of those who have worked all their lives. Following reports of ill-treatment in nursing homes, he plans to hire more caregivers.

Pensions

When the coronavirus plunged France into recession in 2020, Macron put a halt to his plans to reform pensions. The main difference in his new proposal is a clear commitment to raise the retirement age to 65 from 62 – something he ruled out in the 2017 manifesto – instead of focusing on removing a set of sectoral rules to create a unified system. While still aimed at some simplification, the new plan no longer focuses solely on the unpopular idea of ​​abolishing a number of rules and benefits by sector.

The changes he proposes will do much of the heavy work for the rest of its economic framework, increasing state revenues, reducing spending and boosting the country’s growth potential.

Education

Of the € 12 billion investment in education, half of that amount would go to raising teachers’ salaries for those starting their careers and for those willing to change the way they work. Schools will also gain greater organizational autonomy and greater recruitment power.

Climate

Macron has made a clear commitment to nuclear power by promising to build six next-generation reactors. It also promises a tenfold increase in solar energy and the construction of 50 offshore wind turbines by 2050. That could mean the state taking over some of Electricite de France SA assets, Macron said.

The manifesto also provides for regulations to improve the carbon footprint of consumer goods and to link the remuneration of executives to the social and environmental objectives of their company. Macron wants to renovate at least 700,000 homes a year to help reduce energy consumption.

Security and defense

Macron plans to continue reinforcing on-site policing with 200 new gendarmerie brigades in rural areas and action forces that will include teachers and judges for the poorest suburbs. To combat cybercrime, the state will hire 1,200 experts and set up filters to alert internet users.

To keep military spending at 2% of economic output, he has outlined a plan to modernize the military with more aircraft, nuclear submarines and armored vehicles.

Macron has vowed to “continue to fight radical Islam” by closing some mosques that do not follow a map of acceptable behavior, as well as expelling preachers and closing schools. It also wants to create a new border force and speed up the process of deporting people who are illegally in the country.

Foreign Affairs

Macron adopts the pro-European stance that proved successful in the 2017 match against Le Pen.

In the name of strategic autonomy, it calls on the EU to massively increase its defense capabilities and coordinate its national armies. It seeks to build a European version of metaverse, a network of virtual, 3D worlds on which American Meta is working.

Macron has made it clear that Europe must maintain economic pressure on Russia after the war in Ukraine, while avoiding verbal escalation against Vladimir Putin in order to keep all channels open for discussion. It also wants the bloc to move away from Russian oil and gas in the long run and to welcome a portion of Ukrainian refugees.

Source: Capital

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