France: Right shift in the political landscape

In France, suspense usually turns red in the second round of the presidential election. Then the French essentially decide whether the inhabitant of the Elysium will be a socialist or a conservative. However, this rule was overturned in the last presidential election of 2017. Neither of France’s two traditional parties managed to reach the second round of the presidential election. Opponents for the presidency were independent candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marin Le Pen.

Six months before the next presidential election in April 2022, political analysts are already deja vu: for months polls have again predicted a final showdown between Macron and Le Pen or a duel between Macron and Zemour, again from the far right. Although controversial journalist Eric Zemour started out for the presidency as a political outsider, he has now stabilized himself in racist and Islamophobic comments.

Will Zemour determine the Republican candidate?

“Zemour is not only attracting Le Pen voters, but also old, conservative Republican supporters who chose François Fillon as their candidate for the presidency in 2017 (a candidacy overshadowed by a corruption scandal)” Yv Camus, specialist in the study of the extreme right from the Jean Jaures Foundation in Paris.

Zemour, meanwhile, has not officially announced his candidacy, but it is considered a matter of days. “On the one hand, Republicans have moderate supporters who would vote for the Christian Democrats in Germany, for example. But they also have voters who side with the Alternative for Germany, whose views on immigration cannot be considered moderate.”

Five Republicans are currently vying for the Republican nomination. One of them is former EU Commissioner Michel Barnier, who is calling on France to “regain control” over asylum, criticizing the Schengen Agreement. An ardent pro-European campaign is not expected either from Valerie Pecres and Xavier Bertrand. Bertrand, who sided with Christian Democrat leader Armin Lasset last summer in Aachen, is now dripping poison against the EU, calling for a stronger nation-state. The former Minister of Budget Valeri Prekes is moving in similar tones, which is in favor of a tougher treatment of irregular immigration. The other two candidates are Professor of Medicine and former MEP Philip Juven and MP Eric Kioti. However, many analysts estimate that in the end, 70-year-old Michel Barnier will prevail.

The issues that concern the French

Following the election of the Republican candidate, the election campaign in France is expected to accelerate. It is still uncertain whether the presidential election will be judged solely on the issue of immigration and security. According to a recent YouGov poll, the issue of the purchasing power of French voters is expected to affect the election result.

However, in a poll last week, 2/3 of French respondents consider Zemour anti-democratic, racist and dangerous. For Camus, this is something that Republican candidates take into account, no matter how harsh their views on immigration.

Andreas Nol Edited by: Dimitra Kyranoudi

Source: Deutsche Welle