A difficult but under control situation: this is now the prospect of French hospitals dealing with Covid-19. After entering 2022 in complete uncertainty due to the explosion of cases associated with the Omicron variant, France could, like its neighbors, escape the worst.
“We are moving towards scenarios that remain very complicated for the hospital, but are not the hardest that could happen,” researcher Simone Cosmez, who oversees the Pasteur Institute in Paris, told AFP.
Like many other countries, France is facing an explosion of Covid-19 cases. Their average level is currently approaching 300,000 per day, a level unprecedented in the two years the pandemic has lasted.
These impressive numbers are partly explained by the extremely high number of tests performed. But they also show a real resurgence of the epidemic, linked to the Omicron variant.
This variant appeared at the end of 2021, is much more contagious than the previous ones and, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), will soon affect more than half of Europeans.
But in recent weeks a hope has been confirmed: the Omicron variant is less dangerous than previous strains of the virus. It causes fewer hospitalizations, both because the population is better vaccinated and because it is in itself less contagious.
On this basis, the Pasteur Institute, the French institute that specializes in the study of vaccines and whose forecasts are closely monitored by the government, is now focusing on a scenario, which is considered the most likely and in which the peak number of day hospitalizations will be recorded at the end of January and will range between 2,500 and just over 5,000.
In the latter case, the record of spring 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic in France, will be surpassed, when a strict lockdown had to be imposed to stop hospitalizations and prevent a collapse of the health system.
But as it was observed in the countries that recorded the first cases of Omicron, such as South Africa or the United Kingdom, people who are hospitalized because of it go less to the intensive care unit and stay in the hospital for a shorter time.
Delta is still here
Pasteur’s researchers believe in this possible context that it is not necessary to have more than 6,000 beds available in the intensive care unit, a level that this time is lower than the highest observed in early 2020.
The French Agency points out, however, that the importance of such a burden should not be underestimated. It would put a heavy burden on French hospitals, which have been forced to postpone surgery for weeks because of the pressure associated with Covid, with a background of exhausted healthcare.
But the impact “could potentially be absorbed by hospital services if we make an effort to reduce transmission,” Cosmez said.
This is a message that is regularly repeated by epidemiologists when addressing the French: they should not reduce their contacts too much – 20%, even 10% is enough – to make a big difference.
At this level, researchers are encouraging. They estimate that this reduction is already happening, partly thanks to the measures of telework expansion, but also thanks to the precautions that everyone takes in the face of the outbreak of infections.
The evolution of the epidemic abroad tends to fuel this relative optimism. In the United Kingdom, the wave of infections has been receding for several days without finally translating into an increase in intensive care units.
France, however, risks a less-than-favorable situation. The elderly in this country are less well vaccinated than their British counterparts: three-quarters of French people over the age of 65 have taken a booster dose, compared with 90% on the other side of the English Channel.
Mainly, more than in Britain, the Omicron wave hit France while many of the patients infected with Delta were still being treated in its hospitals. This variant has not disappeared from the new infections, although it clearly appears in reduced percentages.
“In some regions, such as southern France, many patients are still being treated for the Delta wave,” Cosmez warned, leaving “less room” in France than in the United Kingdom.
Source: AMPE
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Source From: Capital
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