The Datafolha poll released this Thursday (23) shows a difference of 19 percentage points between former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 47% of voting intentions in the race for the Palácio do Planalto, and President Jair Bolsonaro. (PL), with 28%. In the opinion of the president of Instituto Locomotiva, Renato Meirelles, the polarization between the first two candidates reduces the competitiveness of the third way.
“The bottleneck in the two main candidacies can lead to this effective emptying of the third way”, he said.
According to the political analyst, “the polarization of votes, that is, having two very strong candidates leads, on the eve of the election, to third-way candidates to fragment, lose votes, lose intensity.”
The confidence level of the survey, which heard 2,556 people, is 95%. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
“The researcher, looking coldly at the numbers, sees that, under normal conditions of temperature and pressure, President Jair Bolsonaro will be able to reverse this distance he has with former President Lula. On the other hand, as a political analyst, there is still a lot of water to roll”, assesses Meirelles in view of the result.
The specialist also analyzed the profile of the public that separates the top two. “The big difference in votes between former President Lula and President Bolsonaro is among women. To be exact, 89% of the 19 million votes that separate Lula and Bolsonaro today are female votes,” he said.
According to him, the scenario intensified when compared to the 2018 elections. This year, in Meirelles’ assessment, in addition to the influence of the president’s speeches considered sexist by this audience, his position in relation to childhood vaccination, and the inflation on gas from kitchen and basic food basket aggravated the rejection.
The analyst also recalled that the female electorate has 8.5 million votes more than the male electorate. “This gives more than the state of Ceará or the state of Rio Grande do Sul, for example”, he compared.
Regarding the possibilities of results for this year’s election, Meirelles believes that “if the electoral debate goes to the territory of customs, Bolsonaro has the advantage. If the electoral debate continues in the territory of the economy, in the territory of inflation, employment and the value of the gas cylinder, ex-president Lula tends to have an advantage in this segment”.
Check out the full interview in the video above.
Source: CNN Brasil