O Central Bank (BC) raised its 2022 GDP growth forecast from 1% to 1.7%. According to the monetary entity, the factors that led to the positive revision occur due to the first half of this year, and not so much due to perspectives of improvement in the Brazilian economy in the coming months.
in interview to CNN This Saturday (25), the economics professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas Marcelo Kfoury said that the projection is not so positive, as this estimate assumes that Brazilian economic activity would remain stable, with low growth until the end of the year.
“GDP should grow above 1%, whether 1.6% or 1.7%, but what we need to emphasize is that this annual average measure is not the best. That’s because with this growth in the first quarter, if projecting zero for the second, third and fourth quarter, for example, the average for the year is already 1.4% above last year”, he highlighted.
“Therefore, it is not possible to celebrate this number much because this is a data that requires equivalence of average”, he added.
According to him, economists are increasing the GDP projection for 2022 and decreasing it for 2023 due to international problems.
“There are numbers indicating that 50% of the US will enter a recession in 2023, due to the more aggressive policy of raising interest rates there. In summary, 1.7% means a stability of the Brazilian economy, and inflationary pressure should not decrease in the short term”, he concluded.
* Under supervision of Elis Franco
Watch the full interview in the video above.
Source: CNN Brasil