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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains below $1,950 ahead of US NFP.

  • Gold price fails to take advantage of its modest intraday rise on Friday to the $1,945 zone.
  • Expectations of a new rate hike by the Federal Reserve continue to weigh on the yellow metal.
  • Investors now await the release of the US NFP report before entering any new directional positions.

The price of Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a tight range just below the $1,950 level during the European session on Friday, as traders eagerly await the monthly jobs data from the United States before opening any new directional positions. .

The publication of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) is scheduled for the first hours of the American session and will influence expectations about the next monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, will determine the near-term path of the US dollar (USD) and provide a significant boost to the gold price. Meanwhile, uncertainty about the Fed’s future rate hike path is not helping the market. Dollar to capitalize on the previous day’s rebound from a two-week low and acts as a tailwind for the price of gold, denominated in US dollars.

It’s worth remembering that US macroeconomic data released earlier this week – the ADP report and second quarter GDP estimate – indicated that the resilient US economy may be starting to run out of steam. This, in turn, fueled speculation that the Fed might be forced to soften its hawkish stance sooner rather than later. That said, Thursday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index keeps the door open for a further 25 basis point rise in 2023 and triggered an intraday short-covering move in USD from the mean 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

Meanwhile, the view that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer helps US Treasury yields stem the recent pullback from a multi-year high. This, coupled with a generally positive tone around US equity futures, is further helping to limit rallies in the gold price, which is not yielding, pending key US data. Therefore, it will be prudent to wait for strong continuation buying before positioning for an extension of the recent strong rally from the $1,885 region, the lowest level since March 13 hit earlier this month. .

Gold technical levels to watch


Last price today 1940.58
daily change today 0.44
today’s daily variation 0.02
today’s daily opening 1940.14
daily SMA20 1915.27
daily SMA50 1930.89
daily SMA100 1954.94
Daily SMA200 1913.95
previous daily high 1947.95
previous daily low 1939.15
Previous Weekly High 1923.43
previous weekly low 1884.85
Previous Monthly High 1966.08
Previous monthly minimum 1884.85
Fibonacci daily 38.2 1942.51
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 1944.59
Daily Pivot Point S1 1936.88
Daily Pivot Point S2 1933.61
Daily Pivot Point S3 1928.08
Daily Pivot Point R1 [194568
Daily Pivot Point R2 1951.21
Daily Pivot Point R3 1954.48

Source: Fx Street

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