Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises to $1,920 on weaker dollar, after US data.

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  • Gold buyers intervened around $1,901 and raised the yellow metal amid a US dollar bid.
  • Weak US economic data released on Wednesday increased the probability of a recession in the country.
  • Sentiment remains subdued, although jobless claims are down.
  • Federal Reserve officials continued to express the need to raise rates above 5%.

the price of gold continues two days of losses and rises on Thursday, driven by the weakness of the US dollar and the dovish mood of the markets, while Wall Street opens with losses. Weak US economic data released on Wednesday sounded alarm bells for a coming recession amid a high-inflation environment. Thus, the XAU/USD is trading at $1,921.54, up 0.95% from its opening price.

Gold rises on US economic data and weaker USD

Ahead of the open of US stock markets, the US Department of Labor revealed that initial jobless claims for the week ending January 14 rose by 190,000, less than an estimated 214,000. In the same report, Unemployment Continuation Claims were updated, which rose to 16.47K below the 1660K forecast. At the same time, Building Permits fell less than estimated, and the percentage change from -10.6% in November improved to -1.6%.

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Continuing with the data from the US housing market, home construction starts fell to -1.4%, less than the -1.8% contraction in November. Apart from this, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to -8.9 in January from a revised drop to -13.7 in December. Report that more than 33% of companies registered decreases in activity.

Elsewhere, the Dollar Index, which measures the value of the bond against a basket of G7 currencies, fell 0.17% to 102.239, while US bond yields regained some ground. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 3.397%, up two points.

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Money market futures traders anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting from January 31 to February 1.

Despite weaker-than-expected US economic data on Wednesday, with retail sales plummeting and industrial production plummeting, Fed officials stood firm in raising rates. at least up to the 5% threshold.

On Thursday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said it was appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes, though she stressed their need to break above 5% and stay there for “some time.”

Gold Technical Analysis

The daily chart of XAU/USD supports the thesis of a rise in gold prices. But buyers need to break decisively above the January 16 swing high at $1,928 if they are to rally towards $2,000. Once XAU/USD clears the first, that would pave the way towards an April 20 swing high of $1,958, before $2,000. Otherwise, a correction to $1,900 is on the cards.


Last price today 1919.71
daily change today 16.24
today’s daily variation 0.85
today’s daily opening 1903.47
daily SMA20 1851.62
daily SMA50 1805.76
daily SMA100 1739.63
daily SMA200 1776.42
previous daily high 1925.95
previous daily low 1896.63
Previous Weekly High 1921.96
previous weekly low 1865.22
Previous Monthly High 1833.38
Previous monthly minimum 1765.89
Fibonacci daily 38.2 1907.83
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 1914.75
Daily Pivot Point S1 1891.42
Daily Pivot Point S2 1879.36
Daily Pivot Point S3 1862.1
Daily Pivot Point R1 1920.74
Daily Pivot Point R2 1938
Daily Pivot Point R3 1950.06

Source: Fx Street

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