The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global grain production for the 2022/23 season by 8 million tonnes, from an estimated 2.248 billion in August to 2.256 billion tonnes, according to a monthly report released. this Thursday (22).
According to the council, the forecast takes into account increases in wheat and barley production (mainly for Russia, Canada and Australia), which more than offset the US corn losses.
If confirmed, the total volume will be 1.53% lower than the estimated for the 2021/22 season, of 2.291 billion tons.
The estimate for world grain consumption was maintained at 2.274 billion tons.
The forecast of inventories was raised from 577 million to 587 million.
The IGC said in a note that the result is partially linked to the updated value of global production and revisions to Russia’s supply and demand balance.
For soybeans in 2022/23, the IGC reduced the production estimate by 2 million tons.
The forecast rose from an estimated 389 million tonnes in August to 387 million tonnes in the current report, compared to 352 million tonnes in 2021/22.
According to the IGC, the forecast considers that the advances in production in South America and the Black Sea region will be exceeded by a reduced volume in official US crops.
The oilseed consumption projection was slightly lower compared to August, from 379 million tons to 378 million tons, compared to 363 million tons in the previous cycle.
Already the projection of stocks was raised to 53 million tons, 1 million tons more than the projected in August.
The 2021/22 soybean ending stock volume rose from 43 million tonnes to 44 million tonnes.
As for corn, the council lowered the production estimate by 11 million tonnes to 1.168 billion tonnes in 2022/23.
The volume also represents a drop compared to the result of 1.219 billion tons projected for 2021/22.
Consumption was reduced from 1.197 billion tons to 1.191 billion tons, compared to 1.213 billion tons projected for 2021/22.
Stocks rose from 265 million tons to 262 million tons.
Regarding wheat, in the 2022/23 season, the IGC increased production by 14 million tons to 792 million tons.
The volume became greater than the 782 million tons forecast for 2021/22.
The consumption estimate has increased from 783 million tons to 785 million tons, compared to 781 million tons projected in 2021/22.
The outlook for inventories was raised from 275 million to 286 million tonnes, compared to an estimated 279 million tonnes for 2021/22.
For the 2021/22 harvest, the IGC maintained its forecast for global grain production at 2.291 billion tonnes in September.
In relation to the world consumption of grains, the entity registered a fall.
The forecast went from 2.291 billion tons to 2.289 billion tons. The forecast for ending stocks was raised from 603 million tons to 606 million tons.
Source: CNN Brasil