IPEA raises inflation forecast to 6.6% in 2022

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The Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) revised the inflation forecast for 2022 by 0.1 percentage point.

According to figures announced by the body linked to the Ministry of Economy, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) will close the year at 6.6%.

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Since January, the official inflation indicator, measured by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), has already registered an accumulated increase of 4.78%.

Ipea’s projection is more optimistic than the market’s. XP Consultoria points to an increase of 7%, while Consultoria Tendências estimates 8.5%.

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André Braz, coordinator of the Price Index at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) works with two scenarios: the general one is 9.2%. However, if there is a reduction in taxes for fuel and energy, the rate would reach 8.3%.

The increase in the estimate of the official inflation indicator is due to a revision of the hikes in food prices. The expected growth went from 9.1% to 5.4%, and in goods, from 12.3% to 9.1%.

Estimated inflation for free services, which are not monitored by regulatory bodies, also increased, from 5.5% to 6.8%. On the other hand, estimated inflation for administered prices, such as cooking gas, petroleum products, electricity and airline tickets, dropped from 6.9% to 1.1%.

Published this Wednesday (29), the Overview of the Letter of Conjuncture of IPEA, study that bases the review, analyzes that the scenario for the second semester is more favorable due to the expectation of accommodation of prices of agricultural commodities, in addition to of the estimate of improvement in the projection of the Brazilian crop, which should hit a record in 2022.

Another factor that contributes to the prospect of rising inflation in the coming months is the implementation of Complementary Law 194/2022, which limits the collection of ICMS to 17% or 18%, depending on the state, on fuel, public transport and electricity, in addition to to zero the PIS/Pasep, Cofins and Cide federal tax rates on gasoline by the end of the year.

The IPEA projection for the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which measures the change in the average cost of living in families with an income of up to R$ 6,060 (five minimum wages), the expected change remained at 6.3 % for the year.

Despite the expected stability for the INPC, the nature of inflation changes: Ipea economists expect sharper rises in market prices in the period, with greater pressure from food, industrial goods and free services. However, the projection for regulated prices shows deflation of 0.9%.

* Under supervision of Stéfano Salles

Source: CNN Brasil

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