It is necessary to distinguish economic policy from the climate factor, says Economy on GDP

Seeking to prove an improvement in the quality of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) performance and the continuity of the economic recovery, the economic team highlighted the 4% GDP growth in the 3rd quarter compared to the same quarter in 2020.

Also according to a note from the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE), released this Thursday (2), two strong factors that justify the country’s entry into technical recession are the water crisis and the poor performance of the agricultural sector.

“It is essential to distinguish what is economic policy from adverse and punctual climatic factors of nature. The biggest water crisis in 90 years of history and the occurrence of severe frosts had an impact both on energy-intensive sectors and on sectors that depend on the climate, such as agriculture”, he argues.

According to the folder, if the variation in agriculture at the margin were zeroed, the GDP would grow in the order of 0.3% to 0.4% in the 3rd quarter compared to the 2nd quarter of 2021. The strong increase in prices was also highlighted. production costs such as fertilizers, fertilizers and pesticides.

growth quality

The economic team once again stated that the quality of GDP is more important than the number itself. “There is an increase in the savings rate and the investment rate (GFCF/GDP), returning to the level of the beginning of the last decade. In this way, the improvement in the quality of Brazilian GDP growth is highlighted”.

The note also mentions the 5G auctions, with more than R$ 39 billion reverted in investments to expand the connectivity infrastructure in Brazil and the sanitation auctions, which generate investment commitments in the sanitation sector for the next 5 years.

“There was, in this government, a relevant change in economic policy: the concessions stopped focusing on obtaining more resources for the Treasury and started to target more private investment, thus passing these resources on to improve the population’s well-being” , observes.

The government also reinforced expectations and positive projections for economic growth in 2022, highlighting the good prospects for Brazilian foreign trade and the resumption of the informal job market.

“The level of occupation is still below pre-crisis levels, and it is expected that it will return to the historical average, which should contribute to economic growth next year”, he completes.